Person:

Haneuse, Sebastien

Background: Although the prognosis for HIV-infected individuals has improved after antiretroviral therapy (ART) scale-up, limited data exist on the incidence of AIDS-defining opportunistic infections (ADIs) and mortality during ART in resource-limited settings. Methods: HIV-infected adults in two large hospitals in urban Hanoi were enrolled to the prospective cohort, from October 2007 through December 2013. Those who started ART less than one year before enrollment were assigned to the survival analysis. Data on ART history and ADIs were collected retrospectively at enrollment and followed-up prospectively until April 2014. Results: Of 2,070 cohort participants, 1,197 were eligible for analysis and provided 3,446 person-years (PYs) of being on ART. Overall, 161 ADIs episodes were noted at a median of 3.20 months after ART initiation (range 0.03–75.8) with an incidence 46.7/1,000 PYs (95% confidence interval [CI] 39.8–54.5). The most common ADI was tuberculosis with an incidence of 29.9/1,000 PYs. Mortality after ART initiation was 8.68/1,000 PYs and 45% (19/45) died of AIDS-related illnesses. Age over 50 years at ART initiation was significantly associated with shorter survival after controlling for baseline CD4 count, but neither having injection drug use (IDU) history nor previous ADIs were associated with poor survival. Semi-competing risks analysis in 951 patients without ADIs history prior to ART showed those who developed ADIs after starting ART were at higher risk of death in the first six months than after six months. Conclusion: ADIs were not rare in spite of being on effective ART. Age over 50 years, but not IDU history, was associated with shorter survival in the cohort. This study provides in-depth data on the prognosis of patients on ART in Vietnam during the first decade of ART scale-up.

Allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT) is the treatment of choice for a variety of hematologic malignancies and disorders. Unfortunately, acute graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) is a frequent complication of HCT. While substantial research has identified clinical, genetic and proteomic risk factors for acute GVHD, few studies have sought to develop risk prediction tools that quantify absolute risk. Such tools would be useful for: optimizing donor selection; guiding GVHD prophylaxis, post-transplant treatment and monitoring strategies; and, recruitment of patients into clinical trials. Using data on 9,651 patients who underwent first allogeneic HLA-identical sibling or unrelated donor HCT between 01/1999-12/2011 for treatment of a hematologic malignancy, we developed and evaluated a suite of risk prediction tools for: (i) acute GVHD within 100 days post-transplant and (ii) a composite endpoint of acute GVHD or death within 100 days post-transplant. We considered two sets of inputs: (i) clinical factors that are typically readily-available, included as main effects; and, (ii) main effects combined with a selection of a priori specified two-way interactions. To build the prediction tools we used the super learner, a recently developed ensemble learning statistical framework that combines results from multiple other algorithms/methods to construct a single, optimal prediction tool. Across the final super learner prediction tools, the area-under-the curve (AUC) ranged from 0.613–0.640. Improving the performance of risk prediction tools will likely require extension beyond clinical factors to include biological variables such as genetic and proteomic biomarkers, although the measurement of these factors may currently not be practical in standard clinical settings.