Person:

Castro, Marcia

Background: As a result of poor economic opportunities and an increasing shortage of affordable housing, much of the spatial growth in many of the world's fastest-growing cities is a result of the expansion of informal settlements where residents live without security of tenure and with limited access to basic infrastructure. Although inadequate water and sanitation facilities, crowding and other poor living conditions can have a significant impact on the spread of infectious diseases, analyses relating these diseases to ongoing global urbanization, especially at the neighborhood and household level in informal settlements, have been infrequent. To begin to address this deficiency, we analyzed urban environmental data and the burden of cholera in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Methodology/Principal Findings: Cholera incidence was examined in relation to the percentage of a ward's residents who were informal, the percentage of a ward's informal residents without an improved water source, the percentage of a ward's informal residents without improved sanitation, distance to the nearest cholera treatment facility, population density, median asset index score in informal areas, and presence or absence of major roads. We found that cholera incidence was most closely associated with informal housing, population density, and the income level of informal residents. Using data available in this study, our model would suggest nearly a one percent increase in cholera incidence for every percentage point increase in informal residents, approximately a two percent increase in cholera incidence for every increase in population density of 1000 people per km2 in Dar es Salaam in 2006, and close to a fifty percent decrease in cholera incidence in wards where informal residents had minimally improved income levels, as measured by ownership of a radio or CD player on average, in comparison to wards where informal residents did not own any items about which they were asked. In this study, the range of access to improved sanitation and improved water sources was quite narrow at the ward level, limiting our ability to discern relationships between these variables and cholera incidence. Analysis at the individual household level for these variables would be of interest. Conclusions/Significance: Our results suggest that ongoing global urbanization coupled with urban poverty will be associated with increased risks for certain infectious diseases, such as cholera, underscoring the need for improved infrastructure and planning as the world's urban population continues to expand.

Background: In Mali, malaria is the leading cause of death and the primary cause of outpatient visits for children under five. The twin towns of Mopti and Sévaré have historically had high under-five mortality. This paper investigates the changing malaria burden in children under five in these two towns for the years 1998-2006, and the likely contribution of previous interventions aimed at reducing malaria. Methods: A retrospective analysis of daily outpatient consultation records from urban community health centres (CSCOMs) located in Mopti and Sévaré for the years 1998-2006 was conducted. Risk factors for a diagnosis of presumptive malaria, using logistic regression and trends in presumptive malaria diagnostic rates, were assessed using multilevel analysis. Results: Between 1998-2006, presumptive malaria accounted for 33.8% of all recorded consultation diagnoses (10,123 out of 29,915). The monthly presumptive malaria diagnostic rate for children under five decreased by 66% (average of 8 diagnoses per month per 1,000 children in 1998 to 2.7 diagnoses per month in 2006). The multi-level analysis related 37% of this decrease to the distribution of bed net treatment kits initiated in May of 2001. Children of the Fulani (Peuhl) ethnicity had significantly lower odds of a presumptive malaria diagnosis when compared to children of other ethnic groups. Conclusions: Presumptive malaria diagnostic rates have decreased between 1998-2006 among health care-seeking children under five in Mopti and Sévaré. A bed net treatment kit intervention conducted in 2001 is likely to have contributed to this decline. The results corroborate previous findings that suggest that the Fulani ethnicity is protective against malaria. The findings are useful to encourage dialogue around the urban malaria situation in Mali, particularly in the context of achieving the target of reducing malaria morbidity in children younger than five by 50% by 2011 as compared to levels in 2000.

The use of Global Positioning Systems (GPS) and Geographical Information Systems (GIS) in disease surveys and reporting is becoming increasingly routine, enabling a better understanding of spatial epidemiology and the improvement of surveillance and control strategies. In turn, the greater availability of spatially referenced epidemiological data is driving the rapid expansion of disease mapping and spatial modeling methods, which are becoming increasingly detailed and sophisticated, with rigorous handling of uncertainties. This expansion has, however, not been matched by advancements in the development of spatial datasets of human population distribution that accompany disease maps or spatial models. Where risks are heterogeneous across population groups or space or dependent on transmission between individuals, spatial data on human population distributions and demographic structures are required to estimate infectious disease risks, burdens, and dynamics. The disease impact in terms of morbidity, mortality, and speed of spread varies substantially with demographic profiles, so that identifying the most exposed or affected populations becomes a key aspect of planning and targeting interventions. Subnational breakdowns of population counts by age and sex are routinely collected during national censuses and maintained in finer detail within microcensus data. Moreover, demographic and health surveys continue to collect representative and contemporary samples from clusters of communities in low-income countries where census data may be less detailed and not collected regularly. Together, these freely available datasets form a rich resource for quantifying and understanding the spatial variations in the sizes and distributions of those most at risk of disease in low income regions, yet at present, they remain unconnected data scattered across national statistical offices and websites. In this paper we discuss the deficiencies of existing spatial population datasets and their limitations on epidemiological analyses. We review sources of detailed, contemporary, freely available and relevant spatial demographic data focusing on low income regions where such data are often sparse and highlight the value of incorporating these through a set of examples of their application in disease studies. Moreover, the importance of acknowledging, measuring, and accounting for uncertainty in spatial demographic datasets is outlined. Finally, a strategy for building an open-access database of spatial demographic data that is tailored to epidemiological applications is put forward.

Background: Built environment features of neighborhoods may be related to obesity among adolescents and potentially related to obesity-related health disparities. The purpose of this study was to investigate spatial relationships between various built environment features and body mass index (BMI) z-score among adolescents, and to investigate if race/ethnicity modifies these relationships. A secondary objective was to evaluate the sensitivity of findings to the spatial scale of analysis (i.e. 400- and 800-meter street network buffers). Methods: Data come from the 2008 Boston Youth Survey, a school-based sample of public high school students in Boston, MA. Analyses include data collected from students who had georeferenced residential information and complete and valid data to compute BMI z-score (n = 1,034). We built a spatial database using GIS with various features related to access to walking destinations and to community design. Spatial autocorrelation in key study variables was calculated with the Global Moran’s I statistic. We fit conventional ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and spatial simultaneous autoregressive error models that control for the spatial autocorrelation in the data as appropriate. Models were conducted using the total sample of adolescents as well as including an interaction term for race/ethnicity, adjusting for several potential individual- and neighborhood-level confounders and clustering of students within schools. Results: We found significant positive spatial autocorrelation in the built environment features examined (Global Moran’s I most ≥ 0.60; all p = 0.001) but not in BMI z-score (Global Moran’s I = 0.07, p = 0.28). Because we found significant spatial autocorrelation in our OLS regression residuals, we fit spatial autoregressive models. Most built environment features were not associated with BMI z-score. Density of bus stops was associated with a higher BMI z-score among Whites (Coefficient: 0.029, p < 0.05). The interaction term for Asians in the association between retail destinations and BMI z-score was statistically significant and indicated an inverse association. Sidewalk completeness was significantly associated with a higher BMI z-score for the total sample (Coefficient: 0.010, p < 0.05). These significant associations were found for the 800-meter buffer. Conclusion: Some relationships between the built environment and adolescent BMI z-score were in the unexpected direction. Our findings overall suggest that the built environment does not explain a large proportion of the variation in adolescent BMI z-score or racial disparities in adolescent obesity. However, there are some differences by race/ethnicity that require further research among adolescents.

Background: Idjwi, an island of approximately 220,000 people, is located in eastern DRC and functions semi-autonomously under the governance of two kings (mwamis). At more than 8 live births per woman, Idjwi has one of the highest total fertility rates (TFRs) in the world. Rapid population growth has led to widespread environmental degradation and food insecurity. Meanwhile family planning services are largely unavailable. Methods: At the invitation of local leaders, we conducted a representative survey of 2,078 households in accordance with MEASURE DHS protocols, and performed ethnographic interviews and focus groups with key informants and vulnerable subpopulations. Modelling proximate determinates of fertility, we evaluated how the introduction of contraceptives and/or extended periods of breastfeeding could reduce the TFR. Results: Over half of all women reported an unmet need for spacing or limiting births, and nearly 70% named a specific modern method of contraception they would prefer to use; pills (25.4%) and injectables (26.5%) were most desired. We predicted that an increased length of breastfeeding (from 10 to 21 months) or an increase in contraceptive prevalence (from 1% to 30%), or a combination of both could reduce TFR on Idjwi to 6, the average desired number of children. Increasing contraceptive prevalence to 15% could reduce unmet need for contraception by 8%. Conclusions: To meet women’s need and desire for fertility control, we recommend adding family planning services at health centers with NGO support, pursuing a community health worker program, promoting extended breastfeeding, and implementing programs to end sexual- and gender-based violence toward women.

This paper discusses the implications of poor or non-existent information on soil quality, at the proper scale, during the planning and implementation of settlement projects in the Brazilian Amazon. Based on data from the Machadinho settlement project, Rondônia, we show that most settlers had no knowledge about the agricultural capability of the area, did not receive technical information, could not afford agricultural inputs, planted inadequate crops in the early years of occupation, and did not manage to stay in their plot for a long period of time. Satellite images indicated that patches of land with good soil quality were not necessarily the first to be utilized. Inadequately planned settlements face many challenges (poor soil being one of them) and are likely to result in land turnover, conversion of land into pasture, land concentration among wealthier persons, invasion of areas by poorer people, and deforestation, defying the main purpose of agrarian reform.

Background: Malaria is commonly considered a disease of the poor, but there is very little evidence of a possible two-way causality in the association between malaria and poverty. Until now, limitations to examine that dual relationship were the availability of representative data on confirmed malaria cases, the use of a good proxy for poverty, and accounting for endogeneity in regression models. Methods: A simultaneous equation model was estimated with nationally representative data for Tanzania that included malaria parasite testing with RDTs for young children (six-59 months), and accounted for environmental variables assembled with the aid of GIS. A wealth index based on assets, access to utilities/infrastructure, and housing characteristics was used as a proxy for socioeconomic status. Model estimation was done with instrumental variables regression. Results: Results show that households with a child who tested positive for malaria at the time of the survey had a wealth index that was, on average, 1.9 units lower (p-value < 0.001), and that an increase in the wealth index did not reveal significant effects on malaria. Conclusion: If malaria is indeed a cause of poverty, as the findings of this study suggest, then malaria control activities, and particularly the current efforts to eliminate/eradicate malaria, are much more than just a public health policy, but also a poverty alleviation strategy. However, if poverty has no causal effect on malaria, then poverty alleviation policies should not be advertised as having the potential additional effect of reducing the prevalence of malaria.

Background: New frontier settlements across the Amazon Basin pose a major challenge for malaria elimination in Brazil. Here we describe the epidemiology of malaria during the early phases of occupation of farming settlements in Remansinho area, Brazilian Amazonia. We examine the relative contribution of low-density and asymptomatic parasitemias to the overall Plasmodium vivax burden over a period of declining transmission and discuss potential hurdles for malaria elimination in Remansinho and similar settings. Methods: Eight community-wide cross-sectional surveys, involving 584 subjects, were carried out in Remansinho over 3 years and complemented by active and passive surveillance of febrile illnesses between the surveys. We used quantitative PCR to detect low-density asexual parasitemias and gametocytemias missed by conventional microscopy. Mixed-effects multiple logistic regression models were used to characterize independent risk factors for P. vivax infection and disease. Principal Findings/Conclusions P. vivax prevalence decreased from 23.8% (March–April 2010) to 3.0% (April–May 2013), with no P. falciparum infections diagnosed after March–April 2011. Although migrants from malaria-free areas were at increased risk of malaria, their odds of having P. vivax infection and disease decreased by 2–3% with each year of residence in Amazonia. Several findings indicate that low-density and asymptomatic P. vivax parasitemias may complicate residual malaria elimination in Remansinho: (a) the proportion of subpatent infections (i.e. missed by microscopy) increased from 43.8% to 73.1% as P. vivax transmission declined; (b) most (56.6%) P. vivax infections were asymptomatic and 32.8% of them were both subpatent and asymptomatic; (c) asymptomatic parasite carriers accounted for 54.4% of the total P. vivax biomass in the host population; (d) over 90% subpatent and asymptomatic P. vivax had PCR-detectable gametocytemias; and (e) few (17.0%) asymptomatic and subpatent P. vivax infections that were left untreated progressed to clinical disease over 6 weeks of follow-up and became detectable by routine malaria surveillance.

Background: Under-five mortality is declining in Ghana and many other countries. Very few studies have measured under-five mortality—and its social and environmental risk factors—at fine spatial resolutions, which is relevant for policy purposes. Our aim was to estimate under-five mortality and its social and environmental risk factors at the district level in Ghana. Methods and Findings: We used 10% random samples of Ghana’s 2000 and 2010 National Population and Housing Censuses. We applied indirect demographic methods and a Bayesian spatial model to the information on total number of children ever born and children surviving to estimate under-five mortality (probability of dying by 5 y of age, 5q0) for each of Ghana’s 110 districts. We also used the census data to estimate the distributions of households or persons in each district in terms of fuel used for cooking, sanitation facility, drinking water source, and parental education. Median district 5q0 declined from 99 deaths per 1,000 live births in 2000 to 70 in 2010. The decline ranged from <5% in some northern districts, where 5q0 had been higher in 2000, to >40% in southern districts, where it had been lower in 2000, exacerbating existing inequalities. Primary education increased in men and women, and more households had access to improved water and sanitation and cleaner cooking fuels. Higher use of liquefied petroleum gas for cooking was associated with lower 5q0 in multivariate analysis. Conclusions: Under-five mortality has declined in all of Ghana’s districts, but the cross-district inequality in mortality has increased. There is a need for additional data, including on healthcare, and additional environmental and socioeconomic measurements, to understand the reasons for the variations in mortality levels and trends.

Background: Recent efforts of accelerated malaria control towards the long-term goal of elimination had significant impacts in reducing malaria transmission. While these efforts need to be sustained over time, a scenario of low transmission could bring about changes in individual disease risk perception, hindering adherence to protective measures, and affecting disease-related knowledge. The goal of this study was to investigate the potential impact of a successful malaria vector control intervention on bed net usage and malaria-related knowledge. Methods: Dar es Salaam’s Urban Malaria Control Program was launched in 2004 with the aim of developing a sustainable larviciding intervention. Larviciding was scaled-up using a stepped-wedge design. Cross-sectional and longitudinal data were collected using a randomized cluster sampling design (2004–2008). Prevalence ratios (PR) for the effect of the larviciding intervention on bed net usage (N = 64,537) and household heads’ knowledge of malaria symptoms and transmission (N = 11,254) were obtained from random effects regression models. Results: The probability that individuals targeted by larviciding had used a bed net was reduced by 5% as compared to those in non-intervention areas (PR = 0.95; 95% credible intervals (CrI): 0.94-0.97) and the magnitude of this effect increased with time. Larviciding also led to a decline in household heads’ knowledge of malaria symptoms (PR = 0.88; 95% CrI: 0.83-0.92) but no evidence of effect on knowledge of malaria transmission was found. Conclusion: Successful control interventions could bring about further challenges to sustaining gains in reducing malaria transmission if not accompanied by strategies to avoid changes in individual knowledge and behaviour. This study points to two major research gaps. First, there is an urgent need to gather more evidence on the extent to which countries that have achieved significant decline in malaria transmission are also observing changes in individual behaviour and knowledge. Second, multidisciplinary assessments that combine quantitative and qualitative data, utilizing theories of health behaviour and theories of knowledge, are needed to optimize efforts of national malaria control programmes, and ultimately contribute to sustained reduction in malaria transmission.