Person: Ardagna, Silvia
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Ardagna
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Silvia
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Ardagna, Silvia
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Publication Fiscal Policy in Unionized Labor Markets(Elsevier, 2007) Ardagna, SilviaThis paper investigates the effects of fiscal policy on economic activity, public finances, welfare, and income distribution in a dynamic general equilibrium model with a unionized labor market. The paper shows that debt-financed increases of public employment, wages of public sector employees, unemployment benefits, and labor taxes put pressure on unions’ wage claims, leading to higher private sector wages, lower employment, capital, and output. In addition, increases of public employment, public wages and unemployment benefits increase workers’ utility relative to the pre-policy change equilibrium during the transition, but not in the long-run. Instead, workers’ utility decreases at any time horizon when labor taxes increase. Capitalists always benefit from increases in taxes on labor but their welfare decreases when public spending goes up. Finally, the paper investigates the extent to which the way the government balances its budget affects these results.Publication Fiscal Stabilizations: When Do They Work and Why(Elsevier, 2004) Ardagna, SilviaThis paper studies the determinants and channels through which fiscal contractions influence the dynamics of the debt-to-GDP ratio and GDP growth. Using data from a panel of OECD countries, the paper shows that the success of fiscal adjustments in decreasing the debt-to-GDP ratio depends on the size of the fiscal contraction and less on its composition. The rate of growth of output matters too, but higher GDP growth does not drive the success of a fiscal stabilization. In contrast, whether a fiscal adjustment is expansionary depends largely on the composition of the fiscal maneuvre. In particular, stabilizations implemented by cutting public spending lead to higher GDP growth rates. The effects of the composition on growth work mostly through the labor market rather than through agents’ expectations of future fiscal policy. Finally, the evidence suggests that successful and expansionary fiscal contractions are not the result of accompanying expansionary monetary policy or exchange rate devaluations.Publication Regulation and Investment(MIT Press, 2005) Alesina, Alberto; Ardagna, Silvia; Nicoletti, Giuseppe; Schiantarelli, FabioWe use newly assembled data on regulation in several sectors of many OECD countries to provide evidence that regulatory reform of product markets is associated with an increase in investment. A component of reform that plays a very important role is entry liberalization, but privatization also has a substantial effect on investment. Sensitivity analysis suggests that our results are robust.Publication Tales of Fiscal Adjustment(Wiley Blackwell, 1998) Alesina, Alberto; Ardagna, SilviaThis paper examines the evidence on fiscal adjustments in OECD countries from the early 1960s to today. The results shed light on the recently observed phenomenon of fiscal tightening that produces (non-Keynesian) expansionary effects. One interpretation is that a serious fiscal tightening increases demand Wealth rises when future tax burdens decline, and when interest rates decline credibility is restored and inflation or default risks abate. Both consumption and investment rise. For this effect to produce an expansion, the tightening must be sizeable and occur after a period of stress when the budget is quickly deteriorating and public debt is building up. Another interpretation emphasizes the supply side. Typically, a fiscal consolidation based on tax increases is short-lived. To be long lasting, it must include cuts in public employment, transfers and government wages. lo be politically possible, such a policy must be supported by trade unions. These measures result in more efficient labour markets and boost the supply side. Based both on statistical evidence and on a detailed analysis often cares of major fiscal adjustment, this article provides cautious support to the supply-side view, without denying a more limited role for the demand-side channel. The definitive version is available at www.blackwell-synergy.comPublication Fiscal Discipline and the Cost of Public Debt Service: Some Estimates for OECD Countries(THe Berkeley Electronic Press, 2007) Ardagna, Silvia; Caselli, Francesco; Lane, TimothyWe use a panel of 16 OECD countries over several decades to investigate the effects of government debts and deficits on long-term interest rates. In simple static specifications, a one-percentage-point increase in the primary deficit relative to GDP increases contemporaneous long-term interest rates by about 10 basis points. In a vector autoregression (VAR), the same shock leads to a cumulative increase of almost 150 basis points after 10 years. The effect of debt on interest rates is non-linear: only for countries with above-average levels of debt does an increase in debt affect the interest rate. World fiscal policy is also important: an increase in total OECD-government borrowing increases each country's interest rates. However, domestic fiscal policy continues to affect domestic interest rates even after controlling for worldwide debts and deficits.Publication Fiscal Policy Composition, Public Debt, and Economic Activity(Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2001) Ardagna, SilviaThis paper uses a dynamic general equilibrium model i) to investigate how changes to different spending and revenue items of the budget affect economic activity and public finance; and ii) to evaluate the welfare costs of alternative fiscal policy maneuvers. The paper shows that,unlike an increase in government purchases of final goods, an increase in public employment and transfers can have a contractionary effect on the economy in the same way as a rise in tax rates. It also suggests that fiscal adjustments implemented by cutting spending items increase households' welfare and are more effective in reducing the primary deficit and public debt than are increases in tax rates.Publication Fiscal Policy, Profits, and Investment(American Economic Association, 2002) Alesina, Alberto; Ardagna, Silvia; Perotti, Roberto; Schiantarelli, FabioThis paper evaluates the effects of fiscal policy on investment using a panel of OECD countries. We find a sizeable negative effect of public spending--and in particular of its wage component--on profits and on business investment. This result is consistent with different theoretical models in which government employment creates wage pressure for the private sector. Various types of taxes also have negative effects on profits, but, interestingly, the effects of government spending on investment are larger than those of taxes. Our results can explain the so-called "non-Keynesian" (i.e., expansionary) effects of fiscal adjustments.Publication Financial Markets’ Behavior Around Episodes of Large Changes in the Fiscal Stance(Elsevier, 2009) Ardagna, SilviaUsing a panel of OECD countries from 1960 to 2002, this paper shows that interest rates, particularly those of long-term government bonds, decrease when countries’ fiscal position improves and increase around periods of budget deteriorations. Stock market prices surge around times of substantial fiscal tightening and plunge in periods of very loose fiscal policy. In addition, the paper shows that results depend on countries’ initial fiscal conditions and on the type of fiscal consolidations: Fiscal adjustments that occur in country-years with high levels of government deficit, that are implemented by cutting government spending, and that generate a permanent and substantial decrease in government debt are associated with larger reductions in interest rates and increases in stock market prices.