(Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, 2024-03-18) Spence, Jennifer; Chenok, Hannah; Wilson Rowe, Elana; Smieszek-Rice, Malgorzata; Williams, Margaret; Ulmer, Frances
The Arctic is warming three to four times faster than the rest of the globe. Various feedback mechanisms are accelerating climate change in the High North, yet uncertainties about these processes hinder our ability to anticipate the most likely trajectories for global warming. What are the impacts of increased Arctic wildfires? As snow and ice in the Arctic disappear, how much solar heat will be absorbed versus reflected back into the atmosphere? What effects will that have on Arctic ecosystems? How well do we understand the relationship between melting ice sheets and global sea level rise? Could Arctic permafrost thaw one day release as much greenhouse gas as China or the United States emit now?1 If so, what does that mean for global carbon budgets?
