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Ryan, Louise

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Ryan

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Louise

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Ryan, Louise
Author's Publications: search.filters.isAuthorOfPublication.f5a47cfc-6c6b-45ac-9ab1-5a4e10eff521

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Now showing 1 - 10 of 20
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    On the impact of nonresponse in logistic regression: application to the 45 and Up study
    (BioMed Central, 2017) Wang, Joanna J. J.; Bartlett, Mark; Ryan, Louise
    Background: In longitudinal studies, nonresponse to follow-up surveys poses a major threat to validity, interpretability and generalisation of results. The problem of nonresponse is further complicated by the possibility that nonresponse may depend on the outcome of interest. We identified sociodemographic, general health and wellbeing characteristics associated with nonresponse to the follow-up questionnaire and assessed the extent and effect of nonresponse on statistical inference in a large-scale population cohort study. Methods: We obtained the data from the baseline and first wave of the follow-up survey of the 45 and Up Study. Of those who were invited to participate in the follow-up survey, 65.2% responded. Logistic regression model was used to identify baseline characteristics associated with follow-up response. A Bayesian selection model approach with sensitivity analysis was implemented to model nonignorable nonresponse. Results: Characteristics associated with a higher likelihood of responding to the follow-up survey include female gender, age categories 55–74, high educational qualification, married/de facto, worked part or partially or fully retired and higher household income. Parameter estimates and conclusions are generally consistent across different assumptions on the missing data mechanism. However, we observed some sensitivity for variables that are strong predictors for both the outcome and nonresponse. Conclusions: Results indicated in the context of the binary outcome under study, nonresponse did not result in substantial bias and did not alter the interpretation of results in general. Conclusions were still largely robust under nonignorable missing data mechanism. Use of a Bayesian selection model is recommended as a useful strategy for assessing potential sensitivity of results to missing data. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12874-017-0355-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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    Analysis of Multiple-cycle Data From Couples Undergoing In Vitro Fertilization
    (Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health), 2011) Missmer, Stacey; Pearson, Kimberly Hope; Ryan, Louise; Meeker, John D.; Cramer, Daniel; Hauser, Russ
    The number of in vitro fertilization (IVF) cycles in the U.S. increased from fewer than 46,000 in 1995 to more than 120,000 in 2005. IVF and other assisted reproductive technology (ART) data are routinely collected and used to identify outcome predictors. However, researchers do not always make full use of the data due to its complexity. Design approaches have included restriction to first-cycle attempts only, which reduces power and identifies effects only of those factors associated with initial success. Many statistical techniques have been utilized or proposed for analysis of IVF data, ranging from simple t-tests to sophisticated models designed specifically for IVF. We apply several of these methods to data from a prospective cohort of 2687 couples undergoing ART from 1994 through 2003. Results across methods are compared and the appropriateness of the various methods is discussed with the intent to illustrate methodologic validity. We observed a remarkable similarity of coefficient estimates across models. However, each method for dealing with multiple cycle data relies on assumptions that may or may not be expected to hold in a given IVF study. The robustness and reported magnitude of effect for individual predictors of IVF success may be inflated or attenuated due to violation of statistical assumptions, and should always be critically interpreted. Given that risk factors associated with IVF success may also advance our understanding of the physiologic processes underlying conception, implantation, and gestation, the application of valid methods to these complex data is critical.
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    Evaluating the effect of neighbourhood weight matrices on smoothing properties of Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) models
    (BioMed Central, 2007) Earnest, Arul; Morgan, Geoff; Mengersen, Kerrie; Ryan, Louise; Summerhayes, Richard; Beard, John
    Background: The Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) model is widely used in many small-area ecological studies to analyse outcomes measured at an areal level. There has been little evaluation of the influence of different neighbourhood weight matrix structures on the amount of smoothing performed by the CAR model. We examined this issue in detail. Methods: We created several neighbourhood weight matrices and applied them to a large dataset of births and birth defects in New South Wales (NSW), Australia within 198 Statistical Local Areas. Between the years 1995–2003, there were 17,595 geocoded birth defects and 770,638 geocoded birth records with available data. Spatio-temporal models were developed with data from 1995–2000 and their fit evaluated within the following time period: 2001–2003. Results: We were able to create four adjacency-based weight matrices, seven distance-based weight matrices and one matrix based on similarity in terms of a key covariate (i.e. maternal age). In terms of agreement between observed and predicted relative risks, categorised in epidemiologically relevant groups, generally the distance-based matrices performed better than the adjacency-based neighbourhoods. In terms of recovering the underlying risk structure, the weight-7 model (smoothing by maternal-age 'Covariate model') was able to correctly classify 35/47 high-risk areas (sensitivity 74%) with a specificity of 47%, and the 'Gravity' model had sensitivity and specificity values of 74% and 39% respectively. Conclusion: We found considerable differences in the smoothing properties of the CAR model, depending on the type of neighbours specified. This in turn had an effect on the models' ability to recover the observed risk in an area. Prior to risk mapping or ecological modelling, an exploratory analysis of the neighbourhood weight matrix to guide the choice of a suitable weight matrix is recommended. Alternatively, the weight matrix can be chosen a priori based on decision-theoretic considerations including loss, cost and inferential aims.
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    The Impact of Diet and Betel Nut Use on Skin Lesions Associated with Drinking-Water Arsenic in Pabna, Bangladesh
    (National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, 2005) McCarty, Kathleen M.; Houseman, Eugene Andres; Quamruzzaman, Quazi; Rahman, Mahmuder; Mahiuddin, Golam; Smith, Thomas; Ryan, Louise; Christiani, David
    An established exposure–response relationship exists between water arsenic levels and skin lesions. Results of previous studies with limited historical exposure data, and laboratory animal studies suggest that diet may modify arsenic metabolism and toxicity. In this study, we evaluated the effect of diet on the risk of arsenic-related skin lesions in Pabna, Bangladesh. Six hundred cases and 600 controls loosely matched on age and sex were enrolled at Dhaka Community Hospital, Bangladesh, in 2001–2002. Diet, demographic data, and water samples were collected. Water samples were analyzed for arsenic using inductively coupled plasma mass spectroscopy. Betel nut use was associated with a greater risk of skin lesions in a multivariate model [odds ratio (OR) = 1.67; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.18–2.36]. Modest decreases in risk of skin lesions were associated with fruit intake 1–3 times/month (OR = 0.68; 95%CI, 0.51–0.89) and canned goods at least 1 time/month (OR = 0.41; 95% CI, 0.20–0.86). Bean intake at least 1 time/day (OR = 1.89; 95% CI, 1.11–3.22) was associated with increased odds of skin lesions. Betel nut use appears to be associated with increased risk of developing skin lesions in Bangladesh. Increased intake of fruit and canned goods may be associated with reduced risk of lesions. Increased intake of beans may be associated with an increased risk of skin lesions. The results of this study do not provide clear support for a protective effect of vegetable and overall protein consumption against the development of skin lesions, but a modest benefit cannot be excluded.
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    Do Recent Data from the Seychelles Islands Alter the Conclusions of the NRC Report on the Toxicological Effects of Methylmercury?
    (BioMed Central, 2004) Stern, Alan H.; Jacobson, Joseph L.; Ryan, Louise; Burke, Thomas A.
    In 2000, the National Research Council (NRC), an arm of the National Academy of Sciences, released a report entitled, "Toxicological Effects of Methylmercury." The overall conclusion of that report was that, at levels of exposure in some fish- and marine mammal-consuming communities (including those in the Faroe Islands and New Zealand), subtle but significant adverse effects on neuropsychological development were occurring as a result of in utero exposure. Since the release of that report, there has been continuing discussion of the public health relevance of current levels of exposure to Methylmercury. Much of this discussion has been linked to the release of the most recent longitudinal update of the Seychelles Island study. It has recently been posited that these findings supercede those of the NRC committee, and that based on the Seychelles findings, there is little or no risk of adverse neurodevelopmental effects at current levels of exposure. In this commentary, members of the NRC committee address the conclusions from the NRC report in light of the recent Seychelles data. We conclude that no evidence has emerged since the publication of the NRC report that alters the findings of that report.
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    Does Living Near a Superfund Site Contribute to Higher Polychlorinated Biphenyl (PCB) Exposure?
    (National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, 2006) Tolbert, Paige E.; Choi, Anna L; Choi, Anna Lai; Levy, Jonathan; Dockery, Douglas; Ryan, Louise; Altshul, Larisa; Korrick, Susan
    We assessed determinants of cord serum polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) levels among 720 infants born between 1993 and 1998 to mothers living near a PCB-contaminated Superfund site in Massachusetts, measuring the sum of 51 PCB congeners (∑PCB) and ascertaining maternal address, diet, sociodemographics, and exposure risk factors. Addresses were geocoded to obtain distance to the Superfund site and neighborhood characteristics. We modeled log10(∑PCB) as a function of potential individual and neighborhood risk factors, mapping model residuals to assess spatial correlates of PCB exposure. Similar analyses were performed for light (mono–tetra) and heavy (penta–deca) PCBs to assess potential differences in exposure pathways as a function of relative volatility. PCB-118 (relatively prevalent in site sediments and cord serum) was assessed separately. The geometric mean of ∑PCB levels was 0.40 (range, 0.068–18.14) ng/g serum. Maternal age and birthplace were the strongest predictors of ∑PCB levels. Maternal consumption of organ meat and local dairy products was associated with higher and smoking and previous lactation with lower ∑PCB levels. Infants born later in the study had lower ∑PCB levels, likely due to temporal declines in exposure and site remediation in 1994–1995. No association was found between ∑PCB levels and residential distance from the Superfund site. Similar results were found with light and heavy PCBs and PCB-118. Previously reported demographic (age) and other (lactation, smoking, diet) correlates of PCB exposure, as well as local factors (consumption of local dairy products and Superfund site dredging) but not residential proximity to the site, were important determinants of cord serum PCB levels in the study community.
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    Environmental Organochlorines and Semen Quality: Results of a Pilot Study
    (National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, 2002) Hauser, Russ; Altshul, Larisa; Chen, Zuying; Ryan, Louise; Overstreet, James; Schiff, Isaac; Christiani, David
    There have been numerous studies that suggest that sperm concentrations (sperm counts) are declining in men. However, other studies suggest that sperm counts are not declining or may be increasing in some areas. Although there is disagreement on whether there is a downward temporal trend in sperm counts, the studies provide evidence that sperm counts vary by geographic location. It has been hypothesized that the geographic variation in sperm concentrations may be due to environmental exposures, lifestyle factors, or some unknown causes. To determine whether contemporary ambient levels of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and p,p'-DDE are associated with altered semen quantity and quality, we selected a study population without specific exposure to PCBs or p,p'-DDE. The present study presents the results from a pilot study on the relationship between serum PCBs and p,p'-DDE and semen quality in 29 subjects recruited from the Massachusetts General Hospital Andrology Laboratory. Of the 29 subjects, 3 had sperm concentrations < 20 million/mL, 7 had < 50% motile sperm, 9 had < 4% normal morphology, and 6 were below normal in more than one semen parameter. The 18 subjects with normal spermatozoa concentration, motility, and morphology were used as comparison subjects. The mean (SE) concentration of the sum of PCBs and p,p'-DDE was 242 ng/g lipids (34.0) and 354 ng/g lipids (120), respectively, for men with below normal motility as compared to 202 ng/g lipids (16.6) and 240 ng/g lipids (31.1), respectively, for the comparison subjects. The data showed general trends that were suggestive of an association between PCBs and p,p'-DDE and abnormal motility, as well as with sperm concentration and morphology. A full-scale study is currently in progress.
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    Fungal Levels in the Home and Allergic Rhinitis by 5 Years of Age
    (National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, 2005) Stark, Paul C.; Celedón, Juan C.; Chew, Ginger L.; Ryan, Louise; Burge, Harriet A.; Muilenberg, Michael; Gold, Diane
    Studies have repeatedly demonstrated that sensitization to fungi, such as Alternaria, is strongly associated with allergic rhinitis and asthma in children. However, the role of exposure to fungi in the development of childhood allergic rhinitis is poorly understood. In a prospective birth cohort of 405 children of asthmatic/allergic parents from metropolitan Boston, Massachusetts, we examined in-home high fungal concentrations (> 90th percentile) measured once within the first 3 months of life as predictors of doctor-diagnosed allergic rhinitis in the first 5 years of life. In multivariate Cox regression analyses, predictors of allergic rhinitis included high levels of dust-borne Aspergillus [hazard ratio (HR) = 3.27; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.50–7.14], Aureobasidium (HR = 3.04; 95% CI, 1.33–6.93), and yeasts (HR = 2.67; 95% CI, 1.26–5.66). The factors controlled for in these analyses included water damage or mild or mildew in the building during the first year of the child’s life, any lower respiratory tract infection in the first year, male sex, African-American race, fall date of birth, and maternal IgE to Alternaria > 0.35 U/mL. Dust-borne Alternaria and non-sporulating and total fungi were also predictors of allergic rhinitis in models excluding other fungi but adjusting for all of the potential confounders listed above. High measured fungal concentrations and reports of water damage, mold, or mildew in homes may predispose children with a family history of asthma or allergy to the development of allergic rhinitis.
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    Cumulative Exposure to Lead in Relation to Cognitive Function in Older Women
    (National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, 2008) Weuve, Jennifer Lynn; Korrick, Susan; Weisskopf, Marc; Ryan, Louise; Schwartz, Joel; Nie, Huiling; Grodstein, Francine; Hu, Howard
    Background: Recent data indicate that chronic low-level exposure to lead is associated with accelerated declines in cognition in older age, but this has not been examined in women. Objective: We examined biomarkers of lead exposure in relation to performance on a battery of cognitive tests among older women. Methods: Patella and tibia bone lead—measures of cumulative exposure over many years—and blood lead, a measure of recent exposure, were assessed in 587 women 47–74 years of age. We assessed their cognitive function 5 years later using validated telephone interviews. Results: Mean ± SD lead levels in tibia, patella, and blood were 10.5 ± 9.7 μg/g bone, 12.6 ± 11.6 μg/g bone, and 2.9 ± 1.9 μg/dL, respectively, consistent with community-level exposures. In multivariable-adjusted analyses of all cognitive tests combined, levels of all three lead biomarkers were associated with worse cognitive performance. The association between bone lead and letter fluency score differed dramatically from the other bone lead-cognitive score associations, and exclusion of this particular score from the combined analyses strengthened the associations between bone lead and cognitive performance. Results were statistically significant only for tibia lead: one SD increase in tibia lead corresponded to a 0.051-unit lower standardized summary cognitive score (95% confidence interval: −0.099 to −0.003; p = 0.04), similar to the difference in cognitive scores we observed between women who were 3 years apart in age. Conclusions: These findings suggest that cumulative exposure to lead, even at low levels experienced in community settings, may have adverse consequences for women’s cognition in older age.
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    Diversity of the Gut Microbiota and Eczema in Early Life
    (BioMed Central, 2008) Forno, Erick; Onderdonk, Andrew; McCracken, John Patrick; Litonjua, Augusto A.; Laskey, Daniel; Delaney, Mary; DuBois, Andrea M; Gold, Diane; Ryan, Louise; Weiss, Scott; Celedón, Juan C
    Background: A modest number of prospective studies of the composition of the intestinal microbiota and eczema in early life have yielded conflicting results. Objective: To examine the relationship between the bacterial diversity of the gut and the development of eczema in early life by methods other than stool culture. Methods: Fecal samples were collected from 21 infants at 1 and 4 months of life. Nine infants were diagnosed with eczema by the age of 6 months (cases) and 12 infants were not (controls). After conducting denaturating gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) of stool samples, we compared the microbial diversity of cases and controls using the number of electrophoretic bands and the Shannon index of diversity (H') as indicators. Results: Control subjects had significantly greater fecal microbial diversity than children with eczema at ages 1 (mean H' for controls = 0.75 vs. 0.53 for cases, P = 0.01) and 4 months (mean H' for controls = 0.92 vs. 0.59 for cases, P = 0.02). The increase in diversity from 1 to 4 months of age was significant in controls (P = 0.04) but not in children who developed eczema by 6 months of age (P = 0.32). Conclusion: Our findings suggest that reduced microbial diversity is associated with the development of eczema in early life.