Person:

Verguet, Stephane

Background: Co-infection with malaria and other infectious diseases has been shown to increase viral load and accelerate HIV disease progression. A recent study in Kenya demonstrated that providing long-lasting insecticide-treated bednets (LLIN) and water filters (WF) to HIV-positive adults with CD4 >350 cells/mm3 significantly reduced HIV progression. Design: We conducted a cost analysis to estimate the potential net financial savings gained by delaying HIV progression and increasing the time to antiretroviral therapy (ART) eligibility through delivering LLIN and WF to 10% of HIV-positive adults with CD4 >350 cells/mm3 in Kenya. Results: Given a 3-year duration of intervention benefit, intervention unit cost of US$32 and patient-year ART cost of US$757 (2011 US$), over the lifetime of ART patients, in Kenya, we estimated the intervention could yield a return on investment (ROI) of 11 (95% uncertainty range [UR]: 5–23), based on a cost of about US$2 million and savings in ART costs of about US$26 million (95% UR: 8–50) (discounted at 3%). Our findings were subjected to a number of sensitivity analyses. Of note, deferral of time to ART eligibility could potentially result in 3,000 new HIV infections not averted by ART and thus decrease ART cost savings to US$14 million, decreasing the ROI to 6. Conclusions: Provision of LLIN and WF could be a cost-saving and practical method to defer time to ART eligibility in the context of highly resource-constrained environments experiencing donor fatigue for HIV/AIDS programs.

Abstract Objective: To quantify the impact on mortality of offering a hypothetical set of technically feasible, high-impact interventions for maternal and child survival during India’s 2010–2013 measles supplementary immunization activity. Methods: We developed Lives Saved Tool models for 12 Indian states participating in the supplementary immunization, based on state- and sex-specific data on mortality from India’s Million Deaths Study and on health services coverage from Indian household surveys. Potential add-on interventions were identified through a literature review and expert consultations. We quantified the number of lives saved for a campaign offering measles vaccine alone versus a campaign offering measles vaccine with six add-on interventions (nutritional screening and complementary feeding for children, vitamin A and zinc supplementation for children, multiple micronutrient and calcium supplementation in pregnancy, and free distribution of insecticide-treated bednets). Findings: The measles vaccination campaign saved an estimated 19 016 lives of children younger than 5 years. A hypothetical campaign including measles vaccine with add-on interventions was projected to save around 73 900 lives (range: 70 200–79 300), preventing 73 700 child deaths (range: 70 000–79 000) and 300 maternal deaths (range: 200–400). The most effective interventions in the whole package were insecticide-treated bednets, measles vaccine and preventive zinc supplementation. Girls accounted for 66% of expected lives saved (12 712/19 346) for the measles vaccine campaign, and 62% of lives saved (45 721/74 367) for the hypothetical campaign including add-on interventions. Conclusion: In India, a measles vaccination campaign including feasible, high-impact interventions could substantially increase the number of lives saved and mitigate gender-related inequities in child mortality.

Cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases (CVDs) related to overwork are common in Asia, as is death from overwork, known as karoshi. Japan was the first country in the world to introduce criteria for recognizing overwork-related CVDs in 1961. Taiwan followed Japan in putting in place new policies and then updating these in 2010. We aimed to investigate the effect of introducing the new criteria for recognizing overwork-related CVDs in both countries. We defined the baseline period as the 5 years before launch of the new criteria, then collected data to 5 years after the new criteria. We applied a Poisson regression model to analyze the longitudinal change in rates of overwork-related CVDs before and after, adjusting for indicators of working conditions. Implementation of the new criteria was associated with a 2.58-fold increase in the rate of overwork-related CVDs (p-value < 0.05). However, the examined policy framework in Taiwan still appears to miss a substantial number of cases compared to that are captured by a similar policy framework used to capture overwork-related CVD rates in Japan by a factor of 0.42 (p-value < 0.05). Accordingly, we make a case for enhancements of Taiwan’s system for reporting and recognizing overwork-related diseases and deaths.

Background: Out-of-pocket (OOP) medical payments can lead to catastrophic health expenditure and impoverishment. We quantified household OOP expenditure for treatment of childhood pneumonia and diarrhoea and its impact on poverty for different socioeconomic groups in Ethiopia. Methods: This study employs a mix of retrospective and prospective primary household data collection for direct medical and non-medical costs (2013 US$). Data from 345 pneumonia and 341 diarrhoea cases (0–59 months of age) were collected retrospectively through exit interviews from 35 purposively sampled health facilities in Ethiopia. Prospective 2-week follow-up interviews were conducted at the household level using a structured questionnaire. Results: The mean total medical expenditures per outpatient visit were US$8 for pneumonia and US$6 for diarrhoea, while the mean for inpatient visits was US$64 for severe pneumonia and US$79 for severe diarrhoea. The mean associated direct non-medical costs (mainly transport costs) were US$2, US$2, US$13 and US$20 respectively. 7% and 6% of the households with a case of severe pneumonia and severe diarrhoea, respectively, were pushed below the extreme poverty threshold of purchasing power parity (PPP) US$1.25 per day. Wealthier and urban households had higher OOP payments, but poorer and rural households were more likely to be impoverished due to medical payments. Conclusions: Households in Ethiopia incur considerable costs for the treatment of childhood diarrhoea and pneumonia with catastrophic consequences and impoverishment. The present circumstances call for revisiting the existing health financing strategy for high-priority services that places a substantial burden of payment on households at the point of care.

Background: Out-of-pocket (OOP) medical expenses often lead to catastrophic expenditure and impoverishment in low- and middle-income countries. Yet, there has been no systematic examination of which specific diseases and conditions (e.g., tuberculosis, cardiovascular disease) drive medical impoverishment, defined as OOP direct medical costs pushing households into poverty. Methods: We used a cost and epidemiological model to propose an assessment of the burden of medical impoverishment in Ethiopia, i.e., the number of households crossing a poverty line due to excessive OOP direct medical expenses. We utilized disease-specific mortality estimates from the Global Burden of Disease study, epidemiological and cost inputs from surveys, and secondary data from the literature to produce a count of poverty cases due to OOP direct medical costs per specific condition. Results: In Ethiopia, in 2013, and among 20 leading causes of mortality, we estimated the burden of impoverishment due to OOP direct medical costs to be of about 350,000 poverty cases. The top three causes of medical impoverishment were diarrhea, lower respiratory infections, and road injury, accounting for 75 % of all poverty cases. Conclusions: We present a preliminary attempt for the estimation of the burden of medical impoverishment by cause for high mortality conditions. In Ethiopia, medical impoverishment was notably associated with illness occurrence and health services utilization. Although currently used estimates are sensitive to health services utilization, a systematic breakdown of impoverishment due to OOP direct medical costs by cause can provide important information for the promotion of financial risk protection and equity, and subsequent design of health policies toward universal health coverage, reduction of direct OOP payments, and poverty alleviation. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12916-016-0697-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Background: High levels of maternal mortality and large associated inequalities exist in low-income and middle-income countries. Adolescent pregnancies remain common, and pregnant adolescent women face elevated risks of maternal mortality and poverty. We examined the distribution across socioeconomic groups of maternal deaths and impoverishment among adolescent girls (15–19 years old) in Niger, which has the highest total fertility rate globally, and India, which has the largest number of maternal deaths. Methods: In Niger and India, among adolescent girls, we estimated the distribution per income quintile of: the number of maternal deaths; and the impoverishment, measured by calculating the number of cases of catastrophic health expenditure incurred, caused by complicated pregnancies. We also examined the potential impact on maternal deaths and poverty of increasing adolescent girls' level of education by 1 year. We used epidemiological and cost inputs sourced from surveys and the literature. Results: The number of maternal deaths would be larger among the poorer adolescents than among the richer adolescents in Niger and India. Impoverishment would largely incur among the richer adolescents in Niger and among the poorer adolescents in India. Increasing educational attainment of adolescent girls might avert both a large number of maternal deaths and a significant number of cases of catastrophic health expenditure in the 2 countries. Conclusions: Adolescent pregnancies can lead to large equity gaps and substantial impoverishment in low-income and middle-income countries. Increasing female education can reduce such inequalities and provide financial risk protection and poverty alleviation to adolescent girls.

The South African Government recently set targets to reduce cardiovascular disease (CVD) by lowering salt consumption. We conducted an extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA) to model the potential health and economic impacts of this salt policy. We used surveys and epidemiologic studies to estimate reductions in CVD resulting from lower salt intake. We calculated the average out-of-pocket (OOP) cost of CVD care, using facility fee schedules and drug prices. We estimated the reduction in OOP expenditures and government subsidies due to the policy. We estimated public and private sector costs of policy implementation. We estimated financial risk protection (FRP) from the policy as (1) cases of catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) averted or (2) cases of poverty averted. We also performed a sensitivity analysis. We found that the salt policy could reduce CVD deaths by 11%, with similar health gains across income quintiles. The policy could save households US$ 4.06 million (2012) in OOP expenditures (US$ 0.29 per capita) and save the government US$ 51.25 million in healthcare subsidies (US$ 2.52 per capita) each year. The cost to the government would be only US$ 0.01 per capita; hence, the policy would be cost saving. If the private sector food reformulation costs were passed on to consumers, food expenditures would increase by <0.2% across all income quintiles. Preventing CVD could avert 2400 cases of CHE or 2000 cases of poverty yearly. Our results were sensitive to baseline CVD mortality rates and the cost of treatment. We conclude that, in addition to health gains, population salt reduction can have positive economic impacts—substantially reducing OOP expenditures and providing FRP, particularly for the middle class. The policy could also provide large government savings on health care.

Objectives: Policymakers face many decisions when considering public financing for health, including the kind of health interventions to include in a publically financed package. The consequences of these choices will influence health outcomes as well as the financial risk protection provided to different segments of the population. The purpose of this study is to illustrate the size and distribution of benefits due to treatment and prevention of diarrhoea (ie, rotavirus vaccination). Methods: We use an economic model to examine the impacts of universal public finance (UPF) of diarrhoeal treatment alone, as opposed to diarrhoeal treatment along with rotavirus vaccination in Ethiopia using extended cost-effectiveness analysis (ECEA). ECEA allows us to measure the health gains and financial risk protection provided by these interventions for each wealth quintile. Our model compares a baseline situation with diarrhoeal treatment seeking of 32% (overall) and no rotavirus vaccination, to a situation where UPF increases treatment seeking by 20 percentage points for each quintile and rotavirus vaccination reaches DTP (diphteria, pertussis, tetanus) 2 levels for each quintile (overall rate of 52%). We calculate deaths averted, private expenditures averted and costs incurred by the government under the baseline situation and with UPF. Results: We find that diarrhoeal treatment paired with rotavirus vaccination is more cost effective than diarrhoeal treatment alone for the metrics we examine in this paper (deaths and private expenditures averted). Per US$1 million invested, diarrhoeal treatment saves 44 lives and averts US$115 000 in private expenditures. For the same investment, diarrhoeal treatment and rotavirus vaccination save 61 lives and avert US$150 000 in private expenditures. The health benefits of these interventions tend to benefit the poor, while the financial benefits favour the better-off. Conclusions: Policymakers should consider multiple benefit streams as well as their scale and incidence when considering public finance of health interventions.

Background: Health systems aim to narrow inequality in access to health care across socioeconomic groups and area of residency. However, in low-income countries, studies are lacking that systematically monitor and evaluate health programs with regard to their effect on specific inequalities. We aimed to measure changes in inequality in access to maternal and child health (MCH) interventions and the effect of Primary Health Care (PHC) facilities expansion on the inequality in access to care in Ethiopia. Methods: The Demographic and Health Survey datasets from Ethiopia (2005 and 2011) were used. We calculated changes in utilization of MCH interventions and child morbidity. Concentration and horizontal inequity indices were estimated. Decomposition analysis was used to calculate the contribution of each determinant to the concentration index. Results: Between 2005 and 2011, improvements in aggregate coverage have been observed for MCH interventions in Ethiopia. Wealth-related inequality has remained persistently high in all surveys. Socioeconomic factors were the main predictors of differences in maternal and child health services utilization and child health outcome. Utilization of primary care facilities for selected maternal and child health interventions have shown marked pro-poor improvement over the period 2005–2011. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that expansion of PHC facilities in Ethiopia might have an important role in narrowing the urban-rural and rich-poor gaps in health service utilization for selected MCH interventions.

Background: Vietnam's 2007 comprehensive motorcycle helmet policy increased helmet use from about 30% of riders to about 93%. We aimed to simulate the effect that this legislation might have on: (a) road traffic deaths and non-fatal injuries, (b) individuals’ direct acute care injury treatment costs, (c) individuals’ income losses from missed work and (d) individuals’ protection against medical impoverishment. Methods and findings We used published secondary data from the literature to perform a retrospective extended cost-effectiveness analysis simulation study of the policy. Our model indicates that in the year following its introduction a helmet policy employing standard helmets likely prevented approximately 2200 deaths and 29 000 head injuries, saved individuals US$18 million in acute care costs and averted US$31 million in income losses. From a societal perspective, such a comprehensive helmet policy would have saved $11 000 per averted death or $830 per averted non-fatal injury. In terms of financial risk protection, traffic injury is so expensive to treat that any injury averted would necessarily entail a case of catastrophic health expenditure averted. Conclusions: The high costs associated with traffic injury suggest that helmet legislation can decrease the burden of out-of-pocket payments and reduced injuries decrease the need for access to and coverage for treatment, allowing the government and individuals to spend resources elsewhere. These findings suggest that comprehensive motorcycle helmet policies should be adopted by low-income and middle-income countries where motorcycles are pervasive yet helmet use is less common.