Person:

Goldhaber, Samuel

Aims Vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) need to be individually dosed. International guidelines recommend a target range of international normalised ratio (INR) of 2.0–3.0 for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation (AF). We analysed the time in this therapeutic range (TTR) of VKA-treated patients with newly diagnosed AF in the ongoing, global, observational registry GARFIELD-AF. Taking TTR as a measure of the quality of patient management, we analysed its relationship with 1-year outcomes, including stroke/systemic embolism (SE), major bleeding, and all-cause mortality. Methods and Results: TTR was calculated for 9934 patients using 136,082 INR measurements during 1-year follow-up. The mean TTR was 55.0%; values were similar for different VKAs. 5851 (58.9%) patients had TTR<65%; 4083 (41.1%) TTR≥65%. The proportion of patients with TTR≥65% varied from 16.7% in Asia to 49.4% in Europe. There was a 2.6-fold increase in the risk of stroke/SE, 1.5-fold increase in the risk of major bleeding, and 2.4-fold increase in the risk of all-cause mortality with TTR<65% versus ≥65% after adjusting for potential confounders. The population attributable fraction, i.e. the proportion of events attributable to suboptimal anticoagulation among VKA users, was 47.7% for stroke/SE, 16.7% for major bleeding, and 45.4% for all-cause mortality. In patients with TTR<65%, the risk of first stroke/SE was highest in the first 4 months and decreased thereafter (test for trend, p = 0.021). In these patients, the risk of first major bleed declined during follow-up (p = 0.005), whereas in patients with TTR≥65%, the risk increased over time (p = 0.027). Conclusion: A large proportion of patients with AF had poor VKA control and these patients had higher risks of stroke/SE, major bleeding, and all-cause mortality. Our data suggest that there is room for improvement of VKA control in routine clinical practice and that this could substantially reduce adverse outcomes. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01090362

Background: Limited data are available on the characteristics, clinical management, and outcomes of patients with atrial fibrillation at risk of stroke, from a worldwide perspective. The aim of this study was to describe the baseline characteristics and initial therapeutic management of patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation across the spectrum of sites at which these patients are treated. Methods and Findings: The Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD (GARFIELD) is an observational study of patients newly diagnosed with non-valvular atrial fibrillation. Enrollment into Cohort 1 (of 5) took place between December 2009 and October 2011 at 540 sites in 19 countries in Europe, Asia-Pacific, Central/South America, and Canada. Investigator sites are representative of the distribution of atrial fibrillation care settings in each country. Cohort 1 comprised 10,614 adults (≥18 years) diagnosed with non-valvular atrial fibrillation within the previous 6 weeks, with ≥1 investigator-defined stroke risk factor (not limited to those in existing risk-stratification schemes), and regardless of therapy. Data collected at baseline included demographics, medical history, care setting, nature of atrial fibrillation, and treatments initiated at diagnosis. The mean (SD) age of the population was 70.2 (11.2) years; 43.2% were women. Mean±SD CHADS2 score was 1.9±1.2, and 57.2% had a score ≥2. Mean CHA2DS2-VASc score was 3.2±1.6, and 8,957 (84.4%) had a score ≥2. Overall, 38.0% of patients with a CHADS2 score ≥2 did not receive anticoagulant therapy, whereas 42.5% of those at low risk (score 0) received anticoagulant therapy. Conclusions: These contemporary observational worldwide data on non-valvular atrial fibrillation, collected at the end of the vitamin K antagonist-only era, indicate that these drugs are frequently not being used according to stroke risk scores and guidelines, with overuse in patients at low risk and underuse in those at high risk of stroke. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov TRI08888

Objective: We studied evolving antithrombotic therapy patterns in patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular atrial fibrillation (AF) and ≥1 additional stroke risk factor between 2010 and 2015. Methods: 39 670 patients were prospectively enrolled in four sequential cohorts in the Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF): cohort C1 (2010–2011), n=5500; C2 (2011–2013), n=11 662; C3 (2013–2014), n=11 462; C4 (2014–2015), n=11 046. Baseline characteristics and antithrombotic therapy initiated at diagnosis were analysed by cohort. Results: Baseline characteristics were similar across cohorts. Median CHA2DS2-VASc (cardiac failure, hypertension, age ≥75 (doubled), diabetes, stroke (doubled)-vascular disease, age 65–74 and sex category (female)) score was 3 in all four cohorts. From C1 to C4, the proportion of patients on anticoagulant (AC) therapy increased by almost 15% (C1 57.4%; C4 71.1%). Use of vitamin K antagonist (VKA)±antiplatelet (AP) (C1 53.2%; C4 34.0%) and AP monotherapy (C1 30.2%; C4 16.6%) declined, while use of non-VKA oral ACs (NOACs)±AP increased (C1 4.2%; C4 37.0%). Most CHA2DS2-VASc ≥2 patients received AC, and this proportion increased over time, largely driven by NOAC prescribing. NOACs were more frequently prescribed than VKAs in men, the elderly, patients of Asian ethnicity, those with dementia, or those using non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, and current smokers. VKA use was more common in patients with cardiac, vascular, or renal comorbidities. Conclusions: Since NOACs were introduced, there has been an increase in newly diagnosed patients with AF at risk of stroke receiving guideline-recommended therapy, predominantly driven by increased use of NOACs and reduced use of VKA±AP or AP alone. Trial registration number NCT01090362; Pre-results.

Aims The relationship between outcomes and time after diagnosis for patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) is poorly defined, especially beyond the first year. Methods and results GARFIELD-AF is an ongoing, global observational study of adults with newly diagnosed NVAF. Two-year outcomes of 17 162 patients prospectively enrolled in GARFIELD-AF were analysed in light of baseline characteristics, risk profiles for stroke/systemic embolism (SE), and antithrombotic therapy. The mean (standard deviation) age was 69.8 (11.4) years, 43.8% were women, and the mean CHA2DS2-VASc score was 3.3 (1.6); 60.8% of patients were prescribed anticoagulant therapy with/without antiplatelet (AP) therapy, 27.4% AP monotherapy, and 11.8% no antithrombotic therapy. At 2-year follow-up, all-cause mortality, stroke/SE, and major bleeding had occurred at a rate (95% confidence interval) of 3.83 (3.62; 4.05), 1.25 (1.13; 1.38), and 0.70 (0.62; 0.81) per 100 person-years, respectively. Rates for all three major events were highest during the first 4 months. Congestive heart failure, acute coronary syndromes, sudden/unwitnessed death, malignancy, respiratory failure, and infection/sepsis accounted for 65% of all known causes of death and strokes for <10%. Anticoagulant treatment was associated with a 35% lower risk of death. Conclusion: The most frequent of the three major outcome measures was death, whose most common causes are not known to be significantly influenced by anticoagulation. This suggests that a more comprehensive approach to the management of NVAF may be needed to improve outcome. This could include, in addition to anticoagulation, interventions targeting modifiable, cause-specific risk factors for death. Clinical Trial Registration http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01090362.

Objectives: To provide an accurate, web-based tool for stratifying patients with atrial fibrillation to facilitate decisions on the potential benefits/risks of anticoagulation, based on mortality, stroke and bleeding risks. Design: The new tool was developed, using stepwise regression, for all and then applied to lower risk patients. C-statistics were compared with CHA2DS2-VASc using 30-fold cross-validation to control for overfitting. External validation was undertaken in an independent dataset, Outcome Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation (ORBIT-AF). Participants: Data from 39 898 patients enrolled in the prospective GARFIELD-AF registry provided the basis for deriving and validating an integrated risk tool to predict stroke risk, mortality and bleeding risk. Results: The discriminatory value of the GARFIELD-AF risk model was superior to CHA2DS2-VASc for patients with or without anticoagulation. C-statistics (95% CI) for all-cause mortality, ischaemic stroke/systemic embolism and haemorrhagic stroke/major bleeding (treated patients) were: 0.77 (0.76 to 0.78), 0.69 (0.67 to 0.71) and 0.66 (0.62 to 0.69), respectively, for the GARFIELD-AF risk models, and 0.66 (0.64–0.67), 0.64 (0.61–0.66) and 0.64 (0.61–0.68), respectively, for CHA2DS2-VASc (or HAS-BLED for bleeding). In very low to low risk patients (CHA2DS2-VASc 0 or 1 (men) and 1 or 2 (women)), the CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED (for bleeding) scores offered weak discriminatory value for mortality, stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding. C-statistics for the GARFIELD-AF risk tool were 0.69 (0.64 to 0.75), 0.65 (0.56 to 0.73) and 0.60 (0.47 to 0.73) for each end point, respectively, versus 0.50 (0.45 to 0.55), 0.59 (0.50 to 0.67) and 0.55 (0.53 to 0.56) for CHA2DS2-VASc (or HAS-BLED for bleeding). Upon validation in the ORBIT-AF population, C-statistics showed that the GARFIELD-AF risk tool was effective for predicting 1-year all-cause mortality using the full and simplified model for all-cause mortality: C-statistics 0.75 (0.73 to 0.77) and 0.75 (0.73 to 0.77), respectively, and for predicting for any stroke or systemic embolism over 1 year, C-statistics 0.68 (0.62 to 0.74). Conclusions: Performance of the GARFIELD-AF risk tool was superior to CHA2DS2-VASc in predicting stroke and mortality and superior to HAS-BLED for bleeding, overall and in lower risk patients. The GARFIELD-AF tool has the potential for incorporation in routine electronic systems, and for the first time, permits simultaneous evaluation of ischaemic stroke, mortality and bleeding risks. Clinical Trial Registration URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier for GARFIELD-AF (NCT01090362) and for ORBIT-AF (NCT01165710).

Background: The factors influencing three major outcomes–death, stroke/systemic embolism (SE), and major bleeding–have not been investigated in a large international cohort of unselected patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation (AF). Methods and results In 28,628 patients prospectively enrolled in the GARFIELD-AF registry with 2-year follow-up, we aimed at analysing: (1) the variables influencing outcomes; (2) the extent of implementation of guideline-recommended therapies in comorbidities that strongly affect outcomes. Median (IQR) age was 71.0 (63.0 to 78.0) years, 44.4% of patients were female, median (IQR) CHA2DS2-VASc score was 3.0 (2.0 to 4.0); 63.3% of patients were on anticoagulants (ACs) with or without antiplatelet (AP) therapy, 24.5% AP monotherapy, and 12.2% no antithrombotic therapy. At 2 years, rates (95% CI) of death, stroke/SE, and major bleeding were 3.84 (3.68; 4.02), 1.27 (1.18; 1.38), and 0.71 (0.64; 0.79) per 100 person-years. Age, history of stroke/SE, vascular disease (VascD), and chronic kidney disease (CKD) were associated with the risks of all three outcomes. Congestive heart failure (CHF) was associated with the risks of death and stroke/SE. Smoking, non-paroxysmal forms of AF, and history of bleeding were associated with the risk of death, female sex and heavy drinking with the risk of stroke/SE. Asian race was associated with lower risks of death and major bleeding versus other races. AC treatment was associated with 30% and 28% lower risks of death and stroke/SE, respectively, compared with no AC treatment. Rates of prescription of guideline-recommended drugs were suboptimal in patients with CHF, VascD, or CKD. Conclusions: Our data show that several variables are associated with the risk of one or more outcomes, in terms of death, stroke/SE, and major bleeding. Comprehensive management of AF should encompass, besides anticoagulation, improved implementation of guideline-recommended therapies for comorbidities strongly associated with outcomes, namely CHF, VascD, and CKD. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01090362