State Clientelism Today: A Case Study of Belarus

Abstract

In this thesis, I discuss the Belarus-Russia client-patron relationship and identify ways in which it has contributed to Aleksandr Lukashenka’s survival in power for the last 30 years. Since the breakup of the Soviet Union, some former republics, such as the Baltics, completed successful transitions, despite difficulties, to full independence, political democracy, and a free market economy. Others, like Belarus, have not transitioned to democracy nor adopted a free market economic system.

Belarus, despite its official territorial sovereignty, has remained a client of its patron, Russia, and that relationship is in large part the reason Lukashenka has held onto power for three decades. Despite official independence since 1991, Belarus has retrenched and revived its interdependent relationship with Russia. Civil society, pro-democracy forces, and voters have been unable to bring down the Lukashenka regime.

The relationship continues to benefit Russia as well. It has helped advance President Vladimir Putin’s objective of keeping a sphere of influence and control over an immediate neighbor to the benefit of Russia’s security and to advance its territorial control objectives in the region. Belarus serves as a conduit for helping to meet Russia’s objectives in its war with Ukraine, utilizing Belarus’s convenient border connection to Ukraine. In doing so Belarus has shown the West that other countries may be prone to Russia’s influence. Both countries enjoy economic benefits in trade preferences and gas and oil product prices. The political cooperation also continues to benefit both Putin and Lukashenka, as both continue to implement the authoritarian playbook of retaining authoritarian power by persecuting and punishing dissent. I investigated how each of these parts of the clientelist model were established between Russia and Belarus. I identify specific points and reasons why they remain as patron and client. From my research I was able to draw conclusions about the longevity of this relationship. By analyzing the quid pro quos from ancient times, as well as before both Belarus and Russia existed as nations, through the Soviet years and post-USSR period, I draw conclusions regarding whether the client-patron relationship is likely to continue in the near- to mid-term future and what effects it may have on regional dynamics and the global political environment.