Economic uncertainty shocks and cause-specific mortality

Abstract

Economic uncertainty negatively impacts employment and production. However, little is known about the associations between uncertainty shocks and health over time. We employ a time-series econometric model to analyze the propagation patterns of uncertainty shocks on mortality, using daily data from the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index and the UK national death registry. We observe immediate increases in suicide, drug poisoning deaths, and in cardiovascular mortality at weekly horizons. Suicide and drug poisoning deaths rise by up to 2.3%, with the positive association persisting for three weeks before returning to baseline by week six. Cardiovascular mortality rises by 0.9%, persists for one week, and increases modestly again during weeks five and six. Our results demonstrate transmission patterns of uncertainty shocks across causes of death, reflecting both individual and systemic responses during uncertain times.