Orange Trees & Oil Wells: Imagining a Decarbonized California

Abstract

California is the most valuable state in the United States, with its real estate valued at more than $10 trillion or 20% of the US real estate market. Supporting this real estate market California has become the largest exporter of agriculture in the nation, valued at $55.8 million. California is also the third largest oil refiner in the country, refining 1.8 million barrels per day. California today is facing extreme climate stress expecting a 40% decline in crop yields by 2050. Industrialized agriculture relies on fossil fuels to support the world’s food supply. Starting in 2030 demand for oil is expected to drop from 93 million barrels to 25 million barrels a day by 2050. Based on these predictions oil prices are going to rise drastically creating global food instability. In addition to the phased decommissioning of 629 oil refineries by 2050.

California’s AB1757 leads the nation as the most aggressive climate policy. This phased decarbonization strategy will transform the worlds 4th largest economy into a carbon free economy. The city affected the most by these policies is Los Angeles, a city defined by its infrastructure. LA has used these tools for the past century to extract resources and bring value to the barren Los Angeles Basin. What happens when the price of carbon is no longer the determining factor for development but instead development is guided by the impact of carbon on the environment?

Los Angeles currently has five refineries within the county limits. Current pressure at the state and local level has banned oil extraction and is making it increasingly difficult to refine oil in the city, with Chevron the states largest refiner withdrawing future investment in the state. The Chevron El Segundo refinery is 1,200 acres of prime coastal property that productes 40% of the jet fuel and 20% of the gasoline in Southern California. The withdrawal of the oil industry is inevitable, but can we imagine a new use for these sites that assist in our transition to a more sustainable future?

As the world is facing this trifecta of a climate crisis, energy crisis, and food crisis solutions need to be looking at their capacity to create change. the adaptation of oil refineries provides an opportunity in the midst of a crisis to rethink the value of heavy industrial land use types as a way to provide more resilience and stability to urban centers.