Echoes of an Empire: Mortality in the Former Soviet Union Since the Mid-1990s

Abstract

The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 initiated a period of significant socio-economic transformation across its former republics, fundamentally altering the landscape of public health and mortality. This thesis explores the complex interplay of economic, healthcare, behavioral, and psychosocial factors in- fluencing mortality rates in the former Soviet Union from the mid-1990s through 2019. Utilizing linear regression models, it assesses the impact of these factors across fifteen former Soviet countries, with a detailed case study on Kyrgyzstan, highlighting the nuanced nature of mortality trends in the region. The study reveals that economic indicators alone do not account for the observed mortality trends within the former Soviet Union from the mid-1990s through the 2010s contrary to expectations. Rather, it is the shifts in risk behaviors, with a particular emphasis on alcohol consumption, that correlate most significantly with mortality rates across the region (with an R-squared value of 0.32 and strong graphical correlation for mortality by alcohol consumption). This finding highlights the limited impact of economic growth, healthcare system reforms, and psychosocial outlook on mortality trends, all of which failed to show graphical and in the absence of targeted interventions addressing risk behaviors. By examining the variance in mortality trends across the region, this thesis provides insight into the broader socio-political dynamics influencing public health outcomes post-Soviet dissolution.