Concerns about SARS-CoV-2 evolution should not hold back efforts to expand vaccination

Abstract

When vaccines are in limited supply, expanding the number of people who receive some vaccine can reduce disease and mortality compared to concentrating vaccines in a subset of the population. A corollary of such dose-sparing strategies is that vaccinated individuals may have less protective immunity. Concerns have been raised that expanding the fraction of the population with partial immunity to SARS-CoV-2 could increase selection for vaccine escape variants, ultimately undermining vaccine effectiveness. We argue that although this is possible, preliminary evidence instead suggests such strategies should slow the rate of vaccine or immune escape. As long as vaccination provides some protection against escape variants, the corresponding reduction in prevalence and incidence should reduce the rate at which new variants are generated and the speed of adaptation. Because there is little evidence for efficient immune selection of SARS-CoV-2 during typical infections, these population-level effects are likely to dominate vaccine-induced evolution.