A systems thinking approach to risk reduction and mitigation for improving disaster management

Abstract

Disasters negatively impact lives and livelihoods, and over the last two decades of 2000 to 2019, they have cost the global economy approximately US$3 trillion (CRED (Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters) & UNDRR (United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction), 2020). The field of disaster management has grown over this same period. Still, efforts towards improving long-term aspects of disaster management like mitigation and recovery have been relatively limited. These aspects of disaster management necessitate a holistic view and long-lasting foresight into ways in which the interconnectedness of diverse components of the system, including climate change, inequity, capabilities, training, and economic volatility, could influence the overall system, its outcomes, and the eventual impact on communities.

Disasters strain the already under-resourced public health systems, along with other essential public services like public safety, public education, public transport, public utilities, and infrastructure, among others. To closely understand the nuances of the interconnectedness of efforts in preparation for and during disasters, I undertook a case study at a mid-sized United States city-county public health department. The case study, while not generalizable or representative of the entire country, was indicative of how systems-based thinking and approaches can be used for efficient and effective disaster management.

The study validated the complex interconnected and dynamic nature of inter-and intra-organizational work, highlighting the need for robust collaboration, relationship-building, and communication plans to be in place and functional much in advance of any crisis and the inherent systemic biases that need to be overcome to make such efforts successful.

The Iceberg Model, a systems thinking tool, was used to understand disaster management. It enabled the identification of the mental models or systemic barriers that are the root causes of the underlying structures and patterns of events seen over and over during different crises. Experts have advised lessons on the importance of cross-sectoral collaboration, information sharing, and capacity-building for out-of-the-box scenario planning for decades. Yet, it is by understanding and addressing the complex mental models that influence explicit and implicit structures that might enable these lessons to be implemented. Furthermore, even such deeper dives should not be siloed analyses. Stakeholders should be careful not to identify root causes within their respective areas and presume that addressing those alone will change outcomes. To understand the full extent of the issues and fully manage them, they will need to work as a part of a bigger system, and efforts will need to be made across the spectrum.

Keywords: Systems thinking, Disaster Management, Crisis leadership, Emergency Management, Preparedness, Mitigation, Resilience, Risk Reduction, Pandemic, Collaboration, Coordination, Communication, Leadership, Management, Innovation, Public Health Systems Research, inter-disciplinary, inter-sectoral, cross-sectoral, organizational behavior