Forecasting the Future: How Social Mood Shapes America's Immigration Landscape

Abstract

The relationship between social mood and immigration policy in the United States is investigated in this thesis, focusing on key legislation such as the Immigration Act of 1924 (Johnson-Reed Act), the Immigration Act of 1965, and the 2010 Arizona SB 1070. Central to this investigation is the creation of the “TrendFusion Forecaster,” an analytical tool used to quantify social mood by combining key indicators from economic factors, demographics, and political climate, thereby shaping public sentiment towards potential immigration policy changes. The model's key findings reveal that the Immigration Act of 1924 scored 34, indicating a restrictive policy environment; the Immigration Act of 1965 scored 57, reflecting an open policy stance; and the 2010 Arizona SB 1070 scored 32, again suggesting restrictive conditions. This led to the following conclusion: scores above 50 favor the passage of open immigration policies, scores below 40 indicate a conducive environment for restrictive policies, and scores between 40 and 50 represent a middle ground. What makes this model novel is that it provides an innovative attempt at integrating a set of diverse social factors into one coherent forecasting tool, thereby moving the field of immigration policy analysis into new dimensions that provide nuanced insights into the complex interrelations of societal influences. The model's findings together with those based on traditional qualitative analysis afford detailed insights into how social mood influences immigration policymaking, in a major contribution to understanding the dynamics of U.S. immigration policy from historical times to the current day. The research is thus instrumental to enhancing knowledge about how immigration policy in the United States developed, hence providing a way for historians and policy makers to search the historical context of immigration in this country.