Modeling Delays in Foreign-Backed Infrastructure Projects: A BRI Case Study on Inequality, Corruption, and Governance

Abstract

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) plays a significant role in global infrastructure development. However, projects funded through FDI often face extensive delays. Using China’s Belt and Road Initiative as a case study, this thesis analyzes which factors most significantly affect the on-time completion of foreign-backed infrastructure projects. Logistic regression models are used to evaluate project completion at various time thresholds. Results show that higher levels of perceived corruption and economic inequality are strongly associated with increased likelihood of delays, while democracy levels in governance have a less consistent effect. Analysis also finds that project-specific characteristics, such as sector and region, also influence delay risk, with projects in the transport sector and those located in Asia featuring fewer time overruns than those in other sectors and regions. These findings highlight the importance of addressing governance and institutional quality alongside technical and logistical planning. By identifying the variables most predictive of delay, this study offers practical insights for planners, investors, and policymakers seeking to reduce time overruns and improve project delivery outcomes in FDI-funded infrastructure.