Ukraine Offers No Easy Lessons for Taiwan

Abstract

As Russian tanks and troops rolled into Ukraine, speculation about a parallel mainland invasion of Taiwan was predictable. After all, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping met in Beijing on the eve of the Winter Olympics — and the invasion — and issued a strong statement on their shared vision of the world. But the complexities surrounding Taiwan call for a high degree of caution, writes William H. Overholt. The consequences of disrupting the delicate balance that Beijing, Washington and Taipei have maintained for decades could be disastrous.