Impact of Different Policies on US EV Sales

Abstract

Electric vehicles (EVs) are a key component in reducing greenhouse gas emissions to contribute to the United Nations’ 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. EV adoption varies widely across the United States due to differing policies and incentives for individual states. The primary objective of this research was to identify which policies or combination of policies were the most effective in increasing EV sales in the United Sates from 2011-2021. This study utilized data from the US National Conference of State Legislatures and the Alliance for Automotive Innovation. Policies were categorized into tax incentives, financial incentives, subsidies, and convenience benefits. Regression and correlation analyses were performed to assess the impact of these incentives on EV growth from 2011-2021. Additionally, a sales forecast for 2024-2034 was conducted using logistic growth models, from which future research can study the validity of the forecast by comparing that data to the actual sales data for 2024. Tax incentives showed the strongest and only statistically significant correlation with EV sales growth (r = .318, p = .024), with states like Maryland and California leading with significant increases. Conversely, financial incentives and subsidies showed insignificant correlations. While some states achieved over 26% annual growth, particularly those with a mix of state and private incentive types, correlation results suggest that individual policy types alone do not fully explain state-level sales performance. Recommendations based on these findings are to enhance tax incentives, develop subsidy programs, and promote private-public partnerships.