Super-Shoe Technology and the Progression of Elite Distance Running

Abstract

This paper assesses the impact of super-shoe technology on elite distance running, utilizing two complementary datasets: results from the Abbott World Marathon Majors (AWMM) and World Athletics global rankings. To improve upon existing research, I implement a set of models that incorporate rich controls and multiple perspectives. At the macro level, performances are analyzed through regressions on fitted Gumbel-min distribution parameters and average finishing times. At the micro level, individual runner trajectories are used to measure year-to-year improvements across technology eras. The results indicate that super-shoe technology is associated with meaningful improvements in elite performance. In the AWMM top-100 sample, the Gumbel regression estimates a shift in the location parameter (mu) of approximately -2.779 minutes for men and -1.387 minutes for women, with no significant change in the scale parameter (beta), indicating a shift in the performance distribution rather than a compression. These findings closely match average-time regressions, confirming that the results are not driven by distributional assumptions. Performance gains are larger for broader elite groups, suggesting that the benefits extend beyond the most elite runners. Finally, individual-level models show that improvements are not limited to a one-time shift at the introduction of the technology but persist over time, with AWMM men and women experiencing accelerated annual improvement rates of 0.21 and 0.05 minutes per year, respectively, relative to their pre-technology trends. Other distance events exhibit these same patterns, but at lesser magnitudes. These findings capture the realized impacts of super-shoes and strongly suggest that this technology offers benefits beyond the mechanical advantages observed in laboratory settings.