Quantifying International Technology Transfer Dynamics: A Stochastic Pipeline and Input-Output Modeling Approach

Abstract

This study establishes a multi-dimensional macroeconomic framework to quantify the regional and international economic impacts of university-to-industry technology transfer initiatives (Leontief 1986; Roessner et al. 2013). Utilizing Wassily Leontief's Input-Output (I/O) formulations alongside a forward-looking stochastic pipeline model, we estimate the cumulative gross domestic product (GDP) contributions, employment generation, and productivity spillovers resulting from cross-border intellectual property (IP) licensing (AUTM 2024; BIO 2022). Applying this methodology to the active technology portfolios of corporate members within TECH Tokyo's Innovation Exchange, the empirical model projects 37.00 expected agreement executions from a dataset of 252 active candidate technologies (TECH Tokyo 2026). Results indicate a cumulative Japanese GDP contribution of $364.08 million (¥54.61 billion) and direct spillover output of $102.90 million across originating economies (USA, UK, and EU). Enterprise-level microeconomic assessments further reveal substantial transaction cost savings when licensing directly from academic institutions relative to inter-firm asset acquisitions (Williamson 1981).