Defining the Silk Road Borders: Central Asia Regional Dynamics and the Soviet Legacy in Sino-Kazakh Bilateral Relations in the Belt and Road Era

Abstract

Despite being the setting for Chinese President Xi Jinping’s 2013 announcement of the country’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)—a project of monumental economic and geopolitical consequence—Kazakhstan did not officially begin participation in the BRI until 2015. This thesis focuses on that intriguing delay, and questions the circumstances and considerations that led Kazakhstan to formalize its engagement with the BRI two years after the original announcement, particularly given the country’s geoeconomic prominence in China’s Silk Road economic belt. Applying a qualitative methodology, primarily process tracing, this study aims to untangle the web of regional and international relations, domestic politics, economic expectations, and strategic calculations that influenced Kazakhstan’s delayed decision. The research focuses on Kazakhstan’s relationship with Russia and how that may have shaped the timing of the nation’s BRI involvement. This study proposes that Kazakhstan’s delay in joining the BRI can best be explained as a strategic maneuver in response to growing Russian assertiveness following the 2014 invasion into Crimea followed by the crash of oil prices and the decline in value of the Kazakh tenge. This research relies on sources such as international treaties, Memorandums of Understanding (MOUs), public declarations, speeches by political leaders, scholarly articles, official reports, and field research conducted in January, 2020. It assesses economic considerations, geopolitical dynamics, domestic politics, existing alliances, and credibility implications to understand the nuanced motivations behind Kazakhstan’s formal BRI engagement. By constructing a timeline of events leading up to Kazakhstan’s 2015 signing of the MOU, this thesis reveals interconnected factors that precipitated Kazakhstan’s participation in the BRI. It provides an understanding of the geopolitical maneuverings and regional power dynamics influencing Kazakhstan’s decision while filling a critical gap in the current literature. Finally, this study illuminates Kazakhstan’s strategic interests in a rapidly changing Eurasian landscape marked by shifting alliances and power relationships.