Making Russia Great Again: The Influence of Russian Social Media Cyber Operations on American Opinions and Attitudes

Abstract

Abstract Approximately a decade ago Russian social media disinformation campaigns began to target American society. The Russian goal was to weaken the U.S. by increasing polarization, reducing trust in democratic institutions, and reducing American influence internationally. Since those campaigns commenced, there has been a significant increase in polarization in American society, and a dramatic decrease in trust in three of the key institutions of American democracy: the free press; the judicial system; and the electoral process itself. Despite extensive study, however, there remains a debate as to whether Russian social media disinformation campaigns have been effective. Some studies conclude that there is no evidence that such campaigns have any influence on American attitudes and political behavior. In part, this is because the commencement of Russian cyber operations roughly coincided with the emergence of Donald Trump as a right-wing populist candidate for president. As a populist candidate Trump used divisive and polarizing messaging and ad hominem attacks to promote the “us” versus “them” divides that are critical to a populist appeal; and attacked Washington insiders and institutions that he claimed had abandoned the interests of the American people. In short, as a populist, Trump’s goals were to increase polarization, and to reduce trust in American democratic institutions. He attacked Washington insiders and institutions that he claimed had abandoned the interests of the American people. In short, as a populist, Trump’s goals were to increase polarization, and reduce trust in American democratic institutions. To that extent, his goals mirror the goals of Russian social media disinformation campaigns. Since Trump also has been critical of NATO and the European Union, and has praised Vladimir Putin, his messaging parallels Russian objectives, making it difficult to distinguish between the impact of his words and actions, and the impact of the Russian social media disinformation campaigns. While it is difficult to quantitatively measure the successes of the Russian social media disinformation campaigns, it is apparent in every case that Russia’s identified goals in relation to each of those campaigns have been wholly or partially achieved. Those goals include increased polarization’ decreased trust in democratic institutions such as the press, the judicial system, and the electoral process; decreased support for Ukraine; easing of animus toward Russia; poorer American relations with its allies; and the election of Donald Trump as president. In each case there is a strong correlation between the timing of Russian social media disinformation campaigns and the achievement of those objectives. Although correlation between Russian social media disinformation campaigns and success in relation to only one or two of their objectives would be inconclusive, where there is a correlation between the timing of those campaigns and full or partial success with respect to every one of them, it is reasonable to infer that Russian social media campaigns have had a significant impact. While there are other factors in play, the influence of Russian social media disinformation campaigns should be recognized as real threat to American democracy.