Democratic Peace: Can it Survive Across the Taiwan Straits?

Abstract

While studies have supported the notion that democratic states do not make war with other democracies, there is little consensus as to why such wars occur. Even without understanding the causes, statecraft has worked to create more democracies in the world, in turn hoping this would result in a more peaceful world. Unfortunately, making more democracies is an often-violent process. This thesis reexamines the Democratic Peace Theory at the dyadic level to explore the impacts of increasing economic trade volumes and transnational institutions. A key hallmark of democratic peace is that democracies have more open trade policies and trade with each other. This relationship suggests that increased economic interaction has a positive impact on democratization and bilateral peace. This theory was the premise behind President Richard Nixon’s and Secretary of State Henry Kissinger’s decision to engage with the People’s Republic of China (hereafter referred to as China) in 1970. A half-century later it is evident that the rise of industrialized China did not make the country more democratic. Despite the lack of democratization, however, China does behave like democracies that leverage economics rather than engage in militarized conflicts. While the example of China illustrates that economic interdependence does not necessarily lead to democratization, it can still encourage peaceful, non-militarized forms of international influence. In the contemporary global landscape, democratic states compete primarily through legal and economic means rather than direct military conflict. Since China also demonstrates these behaviors, it is valuable to explore the impacts of economics to encourage peace. The two nations that are the subject of this thesis are Taiwan and China, a relationship that is arguably the most consequential to global stability throughout the next decade. In this thesis, I explore the modern-day competitive environment between these two, seeking to determine if increased economic trade might reduce conflict within this dyad. My research contributes to the conversation surrounding democratic peace by examining global shifts in democratization in the 2020s. Empirical research on this subject has been limited in the past ten years due to the growing number of recognized nations, which also exponentially increases the number of units available for analysis on a dyadic level. Modern processing tools enable a more comprehensive understanding and reporting of global events, offering automated solutions for tagging and analyzing them. This thesis creates a temporal graphic to compare economic growth and bilateral trade against perceived levels of conflict as expressed in the media. While the thesis results did not provide a direct correlation between increased economic prosperity and peacefulness, it does point to a relationship between economic conditions and how Chinese leaders engage with Taiwan. In periods of economic decline and uncertainty, China is more inclined to open channels of communication with Taiwan while also presenting a less hostile message to the press. This was evident in the lowered tones of conflict during periods of economic stagnation. By examining moments of heightened cooperation, valuable insights were gained, which in turn help to inform future interactions and reduce tensions between the two nations.