Two Caspian Sea Resource Rich Countries Encounter the East-West Rift: A Comparative Analysis of the Foreign Policy Objectives of Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan in a Turbulent Region

Abstract

This study examines the foreign policy decisions of Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan in the complex international relations environment of the Caspian Sea region. Specifically, this investigation attempts to answer how regional and global international relations are affected due to the decisions made by these two small energy-rich Caspian Sea countries straddling the saltwater basin. Additionally, Russia has demonstrated that it considers the Russian near abroad to be under its sphere of influence and the future plans that Moscow may have for the region are uncertain. China, the West, Kazakhstan, Turkey, Iran, India, Israel, and Georgia all play a role too, and from this cauldron of interests the leaders of the two Caspian Sea countries must choose their path. Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan are playing delicate balancing acts within their increasingly complex foreign affairs environments. Moreover, each of these two countries is slowly moving in an opposite direction, Turkmenistan is meandering to the East while Azerbaijan continues to look to the West with certain caveats. Conflicting goals of global and regional powers make missteps dangerous. A complex model including variables of identity, geography, resource, and legacy path dependency explains the actions of west-facing Azerbaijan and isolated Turkmenistan. Thus far Turkmenistan has ably negotiated to improve its circumstance as it drifts towards China. Azerbaijan is in a more precarious position and a future conflict is a possibility.