Predictors of Mortality Up to 1 Year After Emergency Major Abdominal Surgery in Older Adults

Abstract

ackground The number of older patients who undergo emergent major abdominal procedures is expected to increase yet little is known about mortality beyond 30 days after surgery. Objective Identify factors associated with mortality among older patients at 30, 180 and 365 days after emergency major abdominal surgery. Design A retrospective study of the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) linked to Medicare Claims from 2000-2010. Setting N/A Participants Medicare beneficiaries > 65.5 years enrolled in the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) from 2000-2010, with at least one urgent/emergent major abdominal surgery and a core interview from the HRS within 3 years prior to surgery. Main Outcomes and Measures Survival analysis was used to describe all-cause mortality at 30, 180 and 365 days after surgery. Complementary log-log regression was used to identify patient characteristics and postoperative events associated with worse survival. Results 400 patients had one of the urgent/emergent surgeries of interest. Of these 24% were > 85 years; 50% had coronary artery disease, 48% had cancer, and 33% had congestive heart failure; and 37% experienced a postoperative complication. Postoperative mortality was 20%, 31% and 34% at 30, 180 days and 365 days. Among those > 85 years, 50% were dead one year after surgery. After multivariate adjustment including postoperative complications, dementia (Hazard ratio (HR) 2.02, 95%CI 1.24-3.31), hospitalization within 6 months before surgery (HR 1.63, 95% CI 1.12-2.28) and complications (HR 3.45, 95%CI (2.32-5.13) were independently associated with worse one-year survival. Conclusion Overall mortality is high up to one year after surgery in many older patients undergoing emergency major abdominal surgery. The occurrence of a complication is the clinical factor most strongly associated with worse survival.