Reckoning wheat yield trends

Abstract

Wheat yields have increased approximately linearly since the mid-twentieth century across the globe, but stagnation of these trends has now been suggested for several nations. We present a new statistical test for whether a yield time series has leveled off and apply it to wheat yield data from 47 different regions to show that nearly half of the production within our sample has transitioned to level trajectories. With the major exception of India, the majority of leveling in wheat yields occurs within developed nations—including the United Kingdom, France and Germany—whose policies appear to have disincentivized yield increases relative to other objectives. The effects of climate change and of yields nearing their maximum potential may also be important.