The US Crime Puzzle: A Comparative Perspective on US Crime & Punishment

Abstract

This paper compares actual US crime and incarceration rates to predicted rates from cross-country regressions. Global cross-country regressions of crime and incarceration on background characteristics explain much of the variation between other countries. But the estimated models predict only one-fourth of US incarceration and not all of US crime. The coincidence of the non-negative US crime residuals with the very large positive US incarceration residual constitutes a puzzle. The two pieces fit together only if the residual US incarceration does not contribute to a reduction in crime, except to the extent an omitted criminogenic factor pushes up US crime. The paper quantifies this relationship. Drawing on additional evidence from comparative and US-specific data, it argues that the puzzle's most plausible solution combines low effectiveness of mass incarceration with omitted criminogenic factors such as neighborhood segregation.