Part- and Full-Time Re-Employment Probabilities Over Unemployment Duration and the Business Cycle

Abstract

This paper considers how the probabilities of transitioning from joblessness to part- versus full-time work change with the duration of joblessness and labor market conditions. Using 1996-2013 Survey of Income and Program Participation data, I estimate these transition probabilities using a Cox proportional hazard model. I find that as the duration of jobless spells increases, the monthly probability of transitioning to full-time employment declines faster than for part-time employment. Additionally, a one percentage point increase in the national unemployment rate is associated with a ten percent decrease in the probability of transitioning to full-time work but unrelated for part-time work. Consequently, the share of individuals transitioning from joblessness to part-time work increases with the duration of joblessness and with increasing labor market slack. Additional evidence suggests these increases are due to behavioral changes rather than unobserved heterogeneity. Finally, compared to their previous employment, individuals who transition from unemployment to part-time work also experience decreases in real hourly wages, private health-care coverage, and occupational skill level. These results provide motivation for considering non-wage aspects of job quality when studying re-employment from joblessness.