Peace Over War, the Future of the Taiwan Straits

Abstract

Between 1954 and 1996, the People’s Republic of China and the Republic of China (Taiwan) were involved in three crises that encompassed military actions. Many scholars have suggested that military conflict or intervention may again take place at the Taiwan Straits. However, each of the past military conflicts was comparably shorter and less intense than its direct predecessor. At the same time, the scope of economic and cultural globalization has vastly expanded.

This thesis addresses the question of whether tighter integration into the global economy and culture makes military conflicts at the Taiwan Straits less likely. The theoretical variables are extracted on the individual level, the domestic level, and the international level. An investigation of the crucial impact that factors such as economic collaboration, domestic interests, and ethnic connections have exerted on military conflicts during the three Taiwan Straits Crises is conducted.

It is demonstrated that the influence of rapidly advancing globalization reduces the likelihood of military conflicts at the Taiwan Straits. The future of Taiwan Straits issue will likely be maintaining the current stalemate with no armed conflicts, no reunification, and no independence.