Vacant Land Conversion in Detroit, Michigan: A Spatial Analysis of Neighborhood Stabilization and Communal Access

Abstract

This research explores vacant land conversion in Detroit, Michigan and the extent to which vacant land is being utilized towards sustainability through urban agriculture. The main statistical hypotheses of this study are that the extent of vacant land is positively associated with socioeconomic conditions at the neighborhood level; that the conversion of vacant parcels to agricultural use has increased in the city between 2009 and 2014; and that agricultural businesses vary by neighborhood - with neighborhoods with greater land vacancy having higher proportions of businesses. Decades of depopulation and economic downturn have given rise to blighted neighborhoods and fallow lands. A spatial analysis of vacant land, agricultural businesses and changing socio-demographics was conducted at the block group level in ArcGIS using ArcMap. A series of choropleth maps were created to examine changes in vacant lots, agricultural businesses and socio-demographics across neighborhoods.

All three sets of variables were unevenly distributed across block groups and neighborhoods. A spatial regression was ran in ArcMap to model the relationship between vacant lots and socio-demographic key variables, and a second OLS regression was run to explore the relationship of vacant lots to agricultural businesses. The results of the vacant lots & SES ordinary least squares and geographic weighted regressions showed that socio-demographic variables only explained 7% and 18% of the variation in vacant lots. The results of the vacant lots & agricultural businesses OLS regression indicated that vacant land is not a predictor of agricultural businesses. Between 2009 and 2014 agricultural businesses grew by 165%, and vacant lots decreased by 13.5% across the city. A spatial analysis showed a pattern of agricultural businesses in block groups with fewer vacant lots. Yet, more research is needed to determine if vacant land is being repurposed for agricultural purposes in the city of Detroit, and what factors are driving the uptick in agricultural businesses.