Trade-driven relocation of air pollution and health impacts in China

Abstract

Recent studies show that international trade affects global distributions of air pollution and public health. Domestic interprovincial trade has similar effects within countries, but has not been comprehensively investigated previously. Here we link four models to evaluate the effects of both international exports and interprovincial trade on PM2.5 pollution and public health across China. We show that 50–60% of China’s air pollutant emissions in 2007 were associated with goods and services consumed outside of the provinces where they were produced. Of an estimated 1.10 million premature deaths caused by PM2.5 pollution throughout China, nearly 19% (208,500 deaths) are attributable to international exports. In contrast, interprovincial trade leads to improved air quality in developed coastal provinces with a net effect of 78,500 avoided deaths nationwide. However, both international export and interprovincial trade exacerbate the health burdens of air pollution in China’s less developed interior provinces. Our results reveal trade to be a critical but largely overlooked consideration in effective regional air quality planning for China.