Shifting Tides: New Zealand’s Foreign Policy Shift in the Pacific A small state’s response to changing global challenges

Abstract

New Zealand’s 2018 “Pacific Reset” overhauled its foreign policy approach in the Pacific. The explanation for this policy shift remains primarily the official account offered by the New Zealand Government. This thesis tests that official account by identifying and analyzing the factors underlying the Pacific Reset. It identifies three interrelated factors as underpinning the policy shift: a response to the impact of climate change as an existential threat facing the Pacific; the increasingly contested strategic environment in the Pacific, and the rise of China in particular; and securing a stable Pacific environment from disruption by non-State causes. The identification and critical analysis of the factors underlying the Pacific Reset may offer insights into the extent to which New Zealand’s foreign policy is responding to and shaped by the implications of the global climate emergency for the Pacific states, as well as China’s increasing assertiveness in the region. It also brings into focus the extent to which New Zealand’s policy response reflects concerns particular to New Zealand, or whether that response is of more general application for states seeking to adjust new global challenges. The global climate emergency represents an existential threat to Pacific states. It is the threat identified by many Pacific states as their most pressing concern. My thesis therefore also considers climate change as a significant disruptive force in the Pacific and the extent to which New Zealand’s foreign policy approach on issues relating to climate change in the Pacific aligns New Zealand’s policy with the interests of the Pacific states. The increasing geopolitical contest between different states for spheres of influence in the Pacific is also a significant issue facing the region. The influence of China on the development of New Zealand’s foreign policy is an important dynamic to explore because New Zealand’s response to China’s rising influence in the Pacific also implicates New Zealand’s relationship with the United States, which is seeking to counteract China’s rise globally, including in the Pacific. My analysis suggests that New Zealand is seeking to chart a course between the United States and an emerging superpower in the form of China that nevertheless protects New Zealand’s interests and values. It is unlikely to be in the interests of New Zealand, or other small or middle powers to see a modern version of the ‘Great Game’ play out in the Pacific. Through this analysis, this thesis seeks to facilitate a greater insight into how small and medium-sized states, like New Zealand, are responding to these types of challenges. My research methodology involves critical analysis of a wide range of primary and secondary sources, as well as qualitative and quantitative data. In addition to a critical review of the existing academic commentary, I have drawn on official government policy documents, cabinet papers, diplomatic reports, briefings, ministerial speeches, and aid flow data, graphs and maps conducted by international organizations and policy think-tanks.