Alliances, Aggression, and Regional Cooperation: An Arctic Case Study on Small State Alliance Formation

Abstract

This thesis proposes a new theoretical framework through which I explore the complexities of small state alliance behavior using the Arctic as a regional case study. My theoretical model challenges the core assumptions of traditional realist theories, and contends that when there is an effective mechanism for regional cooperation, the impact of aggression can be mitigated and small states are therefore less likely to pursue alliance formation. I use a mixed-methods approach to analyze regional cooperation, Russian aggression, and small state alliance data from 1947 to 2024, to understand the interplay of these variables using multilevel modeling and moderation regression analyses. My results reveal that regional cooperation, particularly through the Arctic Council, is effective at moderating the relationship between aggression and alliance formation, showing that when cooperation is high, it mitigates the impacts of aggression so that small states are less likely to form new alliances despite surges in aggressive behavior. Alternatively, when cooperation is low, escalations in aggression are far more likely to increase small state alliance formation. The research contributes to small state alliance scholarship, showing the importance of cooperative mechanisms as a tool for small states to leverage as a means of securing autonomy, increasing influence, and mitigating the impacts of aggression.