Lessons from International Relations Theory and Terrestrial History for a 21st-Century Moon Race

Abstract

Space agencies from the U.S., Europe, Japan, China, Russia, and beyond are preparing to take another giant leap for humankind: establishing permanent research stations on the Moon. These efforts raise important questions for researchers across many fields, including international relations, business, astronomy, and law. This thesis focuses on the international relations element, and specifically two questions: How have allied and competitor countries worked together in global commons domains where progress and safety required cooperation? Based on those case studies, what lessons might be most applicable to cooperation in space, and more specifically, the Moon? In this thesis, I use theoretical and empirical approaches to address these questions. In the theoretical domain, the international relations theories of realism, liberalism, and constructivism will be used to explore how rival and allied countries, plus their agents and industries, have interacted in global commons domains before, which can provide clues about their future actions on the Moon. In the empirical domain, this thesis will use Antarctica and the high seas as analogs for this Moon and take clues from their histories to anticipate what may occur on Earth’s largest satellite. I conclude with predictive and prescriptive answers to the earlier questions, recognizing that realism is most likely to explain how actors will behave in space, but suggesting how liberalism might be a more useful framework. The implications of this understanding are significant. They are also timely, since efforts around establishing Moon stations are expected to accelerate in the coming decade.