Assessing the Air Pollution Health and Climate Impacts of Transportation as the U.S. Shifts to Electric and Autonomous Vehicles

Abstract

Vehicles remain a major climate and public health issue in the United States despite decades of regulation. In order to mitigate this burden, electric vehicles (EVs) are starting to be deployed in larger numbers, and there is an expectation that autonomous vehicles (AVs) could achieve major gains in the future. Potential impacts of AVs are not well known since they are not widely available yet, whereas EV benefits have been subject of much research but need to be reassessed in view of recent methodological developments in air pollution risk assessment and new data. In this dissertation, we use recent developments in epidemiology, reduced-complexity air pollution modeling, along with recent data, to carry out a fine scale assessment of transportation impacts and benefits of new technologies. In chapter 1, we show that EVs lead to large climate and air pollution benefits in all large U.S. metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) and are an opportunity to achieve substantial public health gains in the short term. Benefits in all MSAs combined are 6.9 cents/mile, varying between 3.4 cents/mile (Rochester, NY MSA) and 11.5 cents/mile (New York City MSA). In chapter 2, we show that reductions in vehicle emission factors per mile since 2008 have led to health and climate benefits of $290 ($190-$500) billion/year in 2017, avoiding 30,800 additional PM2.5-attributable deaths in that year. In chapter 3, we show that electric AVs can lead to large health and climate benefits in U.S. MSAs and that, since electrification benefits can exceed benefits from reduced crash rates, it should be central to the discussion about AV deployment.