Honor-related social contract disconnects and a bilateral U.S.-Russia modus vivendi

Abstract

Is strategic stability between the United States (U.S.) and Russia realistic or are post-Cold War U.S.-Russian relations destined to fail? Is it possible for U.S.-Russian negotiations to result in a mutually acceptable long-term modus vivendi? These questions have been explored by every U.S. President since the end of the Cold War with every U.S. President ultimately resigning to competition with Russia, with the possibility of confrontation, as an inevitable end. This research adds to the scholarship investigating whether a prospective modus vivendi between the U.S. and Russia is possible. However, this research utilizes the less studied lens of negotiation theory, specifically whether one critical element of a negotiation strategy, mutual understanding and agreement regarding the ‘spirit of the deal’ or the underlying and ongoing ‘social contract’ underpinning a modus vivendi, is possible. This paper utilizes social contract disconnects including honor cultures’ preference for relational, not rational, models of negotiation, the survival strategies of honor cultures, and how honor cultures’ linkages to patrilineal kinship systems, power, and corruption factor into security narratives. Ultimately this research concludes in agreement with John Mearsheimer’s assertion that the U.S. and Russia utilize “different playbooks”, but contends fundamental implicit social contract differences based on honor-related variables more importantly factor into why the two countries cannot mutually agree upon and maintain a functional modus vivendi.