Political Corruption: An Explanation for Latin American Migration

Abstract

This study examines the intricate relationship between political corruption and migration. While existing research focuses mostly on the economic determinants of emigration, this explores the often-understudied political aspects acting as push factors, particularly political corruption as a driver of emigration from Latin America. Using the gravity model with cross-sectional data on yearly migration and corruption patterns of 16 Latin American countries from 2012 to 2021, this analysis reveals a strong relationship between political corruption and migration patterns. The study distinguishes between non-immigrants (tourists, business travelers, and students), who sometimes overstay visas to become informal migrants, and unauthorized migrants apprehended by border patrol entering the United States. For both groups, an increase in corruption in the origin country is associated with increased emigration rates, though also being shaped by other factors like the minimum wage and GDP per capita. This study also introduces the concept of the “shock element” to the decision-making process to emigrate. Corruption scandals are a mechanism that incentivizes individuals to consider emigration. Individual-level survey data on the motives for emigration from Guatemala shows that corruption is a primary incentive, particularly corruption scandals within a given year explain migration patterns from the country.