Driving Emissions Abroad? The Relationship Between Green Vehicles and Used Vehicle Exports to Developing Nations

Abstract

Developed countries have begun pursuing green industrial policy as a strategic means to accelerate technological change and economic transformation towards more sustainable economies. These shifts raise important questions concerning how green industrial policies might interact with greenhouse gas flows through international trade. Policies aimed at reducing transportation emissions are particularly important as the sector is lagging others in decarbonization. As populations rise and economies develop within developing countries, vehicular transportation emissions are projected to escalate without policy interventions. My research aimed to understand if used vehicle exports from developed countries are part of a system preventing decarbonization in developing countries by shifting emissions abroad. Do green industrial policies in developed nations drive the export of used conventionally fueled vehicles to developing countries? How might this apply to a region experiencing rapid urbanization and population growth, considering sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is poised for rising transportation emissions that could undermine global climate goals (Booysen et al., 2021; Rajé et al., 2018)? Through quantitative analysis of two decades of customs data, my research evaluated connections between major exporters' green vehicle policies and used vehicle exports. Using a cross-national panel regression analysis, the effects of used vehicle trade on CO2 fuel emissions were analyzed. This analysis explored associations between major transport emissions sources in core countries transitioning to green vehicle fleets and periphery nations continuing conventionally fueled imports. This research draws on Eco-dependency theory literature and hypothesized and found that: 1) The relationship between used vehicle trade flows and associated CO2 emissions demonstrates stronger alignment with Eco-dependency theory than Neoliberal theoretical frameworks in the Global and Latin America regressions; and 2) the regions of SSA, Latin America, and Southeast Asia, predominantly comprised of countries with low and medium HDI, support Eco-dependency theory through positive correlation between used passenger vehicle exports and CO2 fuel emissions. However, only the region of Latin America showed support for Eco-dependency theory. The analysis provided some empirical support for green industrial policy serving as a potential new mechanism by which core countries maintain technological dependencies with peripheries in Latin America. However, this relationship did not hold in the cases of SSA and Southeast Asia. This casts doubt upon the relevance of Ecodependency theory and calls for further research on understanding how green industrial policies interact with international development processes and prevent periphery countries from decarbonizing. The link was not found in SSA and Southeast Asia, challenging aspects of Eco-dependency theory by suggesting green development does not inherently affect the environment in the way the theory proposes outside of Latin America. Policy makers should note that these unintended global emission flows through international trade risk eroding emissions reductions achieved domestically in developing countries, and hamper net zero efforts globally