Iraq in the 2020’s: Stable Union or Balkanized States?

Abstract

Rife with sectarian division in a contentious region, and at the center of numerous global conflicts, the nation of Iraq is a geopolitical paradox in many ways. This paper examines modern-day Iraq on local, regional, and international levels and explores the question of whether the struggling country is destined to remain a single nation or would be more viable as two or even three separate states. After thorough analysis of each outcome, it comes to the conclusion that a two-state solution is the most stable option, wherein Iraqi Kurdistan secedes from the rest of the country, and rival Sunni- and Shi'a-majority regions reunite under new government leadership.