Peeking Through the Iron Curtain: How Finnish Television Influenced Politics and Culture in Soviet Estonia

Abstract

This paper examines the causal impact of accidental exposure to Finnish television on politi cal attitudes and voting behavior in Soviet Estonia. To isolate the effect of Western media on post-independence parliamentary election outcomes I exploit a unique natural experiment: differential access to Finnish television determined by geographic features. Combining novel data on broadcast signal strength with municipal-level voting outcomes in the pre- and post- Soviet periods, I adopt three complementary empirical methods: fixed-effects weighted least squares, a difference-in-differences event study, and a regression discontinuity design. The results reveal that exposure to Finnish television increased vote shares for parties that promoted democratic values, a market economy, fiscal conservatism, business incentives, welfare policies, and civil rights, and decreased support for parties endorsing marxist ideologies and the need for strong central authority. Mechanism analyses using archival records and survey data indicate that (i) Finnish television had a particularly strong impact on younger audiences, and (ii) the shift in voting behavior was driven primarily by Western entertainment content rather than explicitly political programming. This highlights the power of non-political media as a compelling vehicle for democratic soft power, capable of driving significant political change even in authoritarian regimes.