Thirty Years of Democracy in Estonia and Lithuania: Understanding the Drivers of People’s Satisfaction with Democracy and Their Expectations from It

Abstract

Lithuania and Estonia regained their independence from the Soviet Union in the early 1990s. Both countries are now viewed as established democracies with free-market economies; however, the transition to both was fraught with difficulties. Lithuania and Estonia had to decouple their economies from Russia and other former Soviet Union republics, and Estonia struggled to effectively address the rights of its Russian minority. This study uses the European Social Survey and the World Values Survey to understand what drives Lithuanians’ and Estonians’ satisfaction with democracy and how it has changed since the 2000s. I conclude that people still base their satisfaction with democracy largely on their satisfaction with the prevailing economic conditions and governments. Other variables have a very limited impact. Lithuanians place more emphasis on the economy than Estonians. Furthermore, I discuss how the Soviet experience has impacted people’s expectations of democracy. It appears that people in both countries show limited commitment to minority rights, and the data suggests that the attitudes have not improved since the 1990s. Finally, despite Estonians’ and Lithuanians’ low satisfaction with democracy, their commitment to democracy remains strong. I argue that this is because of their proximity to Russia. I consider that the commitment to democracy will strengthen as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.