A Regional Study of the Relationship Between Rainfall and Violent Conflict in Ethiopia

Abstract

This paper presents an exploration of the relationship between Ethiopian precipitation anomalies and violent conflict. Interest in a possible connection between climate and conflict is booming. However, there is disagreement about whether or not such a connection exists. This paper will deal with climate in the context of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The spatial patterns of precipitation within Ethiopia are analyzed, and the relationship between ENSO and precipitation is explored. Additionally, the relationship between precipitation and conflict is analyzed. These analyses are done regionally, rather than for the country as a whole. The reason for this stems from the diversity of precipitation patterns, topography, and ethnic makeup across various regions in Ethiopia. It was determined that there is a strong correspondence between precipitation patterns and ethnic territories in Ethiopia. It was also determined that the relationship between precipitation anomalies and ENSO varies spatially and seasonally. Finally, there is some evidence that below normal precipitation precedes conflict on a regional scale in the country.