Exploring Greater Common Ground: Western Countries and the Turkic and Tajik States of the Central Asian to Trans-Caspian Corridor

Abstract

Following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, growing cohesion among the Turkic and Tajik states is notable as international and regional power alignments shift. Western countries have coalesced to defend against Russia and develop alternatives to their dependencies on Russia. Seven Turkic and Tajik states along the Central Asian to Trans-Caspian corridor—Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, and Türkiye—are recognized as top candidates for expanded roles in energy supply and product transport. Concurrently, the six former Soviet republics are testing the fraught potential for generational transformation toward operative independence from Russia and more reliable relationships with the West. The thesis topic is: Western engagement with the seven Turkic and Tajik states along the Central Asian to Trans-Caspian corridor. The research question is: To what extent has the Russia-Ukraine war led Western countries to find common ground with Turkic and Tajik states along the Central Asian to Trans-Caspian corridor? Within theoretical frameworks of linkage and leverage, agency, modernization, and structure, the project conducts empirical data collection, quantitative and qualitative content analysis, hypothesis and proposition evaluation, and policy discussion. The study covers thousands of public records gleaned from official websites of Western states and entities, and Turkic and Tajik states and entities. Background conversations and reliable media sources help to validate or clarify official records. This thesis finds burgeoning realignments, with greater common ground among Western, Turkic, and Tajik states, and much yet to do.