The Role of Human Mobility, Deforestation, and Extreme Weather Events on Malaria in Brazil

Abstract

Malaria control efforts in Brazil have historically been variable in their success, with the most recent era being no exception. Between 2000 and 2015, the Brazilian National Malaria Prevention and Control Program (NMCP) reduced malaria incidence in the Amazon region by more than 75%, spurring the launch of a plan for the elimination of Plasmodium falciparum. Reductions in cases continued, with 2016 marking the lowest recorded year for malaria case counts in Brazil in 35 years. Though the NMCP continued its efforts toward malaria elimination, case counts began increasing between 2016 and 2018. Various challenges to malaria elimination in Brazil have been outlined, of which human mobility and major environmental changes have been outlined as particular challenges to ongoing malaria transmission and policies targeted at elimination. This dissertation will provide the Brazilian NMCP with key information to stratify malaria interventions more accurately toward the end goal of elimination in line with the goals of the World Health Organization Global Technical Strategy for Malaria 2016-2030.