Analysis of Carbon Reduction Potential in China’s Civil Aviation Industry (2027-2060)

Abstract

China has committed to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060, placing considerable pressure on high-emission sectors to decarbonize. Yet the aviation sector currently lacks a national-level reduction target or roadmap. In contrast, the European Union and the United States have already set clear aviation decarbonization strategies, increasing pressure on China to respond. This research evaluated future emission trends under a Business-as-Usual (BaU) model and assessed the effectiveness of key policy measures, particularly Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) and structural changes in transportation such as High-Speed Rail (HSR) reforms. It aimed to answer three questions: (1) How will China’s air travel demand change under the BaU model? (2) What is the potential of structural adjustments, especially HSR substitution, to reduce emissions? (3) To what extent could policy incentives drive further reductions? Under the BaU model, I estimated China’s future air travel demand using authoritative projections of economic growth and population structure. With 2019 as the baseline, demand was projected to reach 1.15 times the 2019 level by 2035 and more than double by 2060, underscoring the need for additional measures to achieve net-zero. Building on this baseline, the analysis examined HSR’s substitution effect by evaluating China’s major 2019 civil aviation routes and calculating replacement potential based on travel times between origin–destination pairs. Future scenarios considered possible HSR speed increases: by 2035, no infrastructure upgrades but operational adjustments such as timetable changes; and by 2060, infrastructure improvements. Results projected that, with 2019 as the baseline year, approximately 23.1% of air travel would shift to HSR by 2035, increasing to 37.6% by 2060. When GDP growth, demographic change, and HSR substitution were jointly considered—while excluding aircraft efficiency improvements—aviation kerosene demand was estimated at 31.17Mt by 2035 and 44.88 million tonnes by 2060. Rising fuel demand highlighted the urgent need to curb aircraft carbon emissions while accommodating mobility growth. Currently, SAF is internationally recognized as the primary technological pathway for aviation decarbonization, with hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA) as the only commercially viable route. As used cooking oil (UCO) remains the primary SAF feedstock but is in limited supply, even efficient nationwide collection would not provide sufficient capacity to achieve a 20% reduction in aviation emissions from 2019 levels by 2035. Therefore, China must accelerate commercialization of alternative SAF pathways through R&D support, while also adopting policies such as mandatory blending targets and carbon credit schemes to stimulate emissions reduction in the aviation sector.