The Dark Mirror: Gerasimov’s Hybrid War in Ukraine

Abstract

This thesis investigates to what extent General Valery Gerasimov’s “hybrid” warfare approach is being used in Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine. Much debate over exactly what is Russia’s strategy in Ukraine is ongoing and Gerasimov’s exact influence on it. This thesis discusses the approach Gerasimov advocates in terms of Russian cyberwarfare, influence campaigns and broader dynamics, such as the competition between civilian and military intelligence in Russia. General Gerasimov’s position as Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and First Deputy Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation, his closeness to the highly influential Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and his willingness to argue for the modernization of the Russian military in a way that uses advanced low cost and high impact hybrid war techniques make it likely that he is and will continue to highly influence Russian military approaches in Ukraine and elsewhere. As a method to counter Gerasimov’s hybrid war techniques, this thesis proposes a de-escalation strategy that interferes with Russian information manipulation and also reduce violence that could escalate to a minimum.