Damned Cascades: The Stochasticity of Behavioral Models vis-à-vis the Motivations of First Movers, and the Mechanics of Popular Movements

Abstract

This study shows that there is a correlation between the founders and co-founders of start-ups and first movers in popular uprisings in terms of their motivations at different points in their respective journeys. It argues that first movers, like startup founders and co-founders, are altruistically motivated in their approach to action—that is, their philosophy is altruistically informed—self-interested in their risk aversion and ultimate risk assumption. Because startup founders and co-founders face high-risk, low-reward conditions similar to those with which first movers in popular uprisings are met, they were employed as a proxy. Startup founders and co-founders were surveyed to assess their motivations as they pertain to three hypotheses: (1) First movers are altruistically motivated in their approach to action; (2) First movers are self-interested in their approach to action; (3) First movers’ risk aversion and risk assumption is ultimately dictated by self-interest. The results of the surveys were then applied to the cases of Ted Kaczynski, Anders Behring Breivik, and Vladimir Lenin in order to demonstrate their validity.