Decarbonizing Electricity in the United States: A Review of Goals and Effectiveness

Abstract

In 2022 alone, U.S. reliance on natural gas to meet peak demand electrical generation needs prevented the global use of fossil fuels to decrease, clearly signifying the link between the country’s energy dependence on fossil fuels and the global emissions profile (CO2 emissions in 2022, 2023). The United States has committed to decarbonizing as part of the Paris Accords, stating that by 2030 the United States will reduce total economy CO2e emissions 50-52% below 2005 levels, and by 2035 will have a 100% carbon pollution free electrical grid (President Biden Sets 2030 Greenhouse Gas Pollution Reduction Target, 2021). It is unclear how these goals will be met. There is no public tracking to demonstrate where the United States is on its decarbonization journey, and no public pathway to delineate how the administration intends to move the needle. A confounding factor is that power generation companies have set their own decarbonization targets that may not align with federal targets. The research focused on power companies in the United States with publicly stated decarbonization goals as well as those states that have set goals. I hypothesized that the United States will not reach its stated goals based on current trends, and power generation companies collectively have not divested from emissions intense operations to reach their own decarbonization goals. I also hypothesized that the western United States is decarbonizing faster than other regions. Leveraging data from self-published company reports sources as well as the EPA and EIA, I analyzed how the rate of decarbonization, both for a single company and then for the cohort of identified companies, as well as a single state, moved across the ten-year period. The average rate of decarbonization was applied to forecast the electric emissions for the United States through 2035 to determine if the 100% carbon pollution free electrical grid goal can be attained. A secondary analysis to determine if particular regions and types of companies are decarbonizing faster was also completed. The analysis of the U.S. electric consumption related emissions over the last ten years revealed that after the NDCs were published, emissions continued to increase. Power generation company emissions are volatile, and reflect that actions taken may not be enough to meet stated goals. Similarly, state emission trends over the 2012-2022 period for states with emission reduction goals and states without emission reduction goals are not statistically different. This research demonstrated that while setting goals is a good first step to decarbonizing electricity, there must be intentional and immediate next steps to ensure those goals are met and decarbonization actions are taken. In a country as large and complex as the United States it is not enough to set a goal without interim targets or mandatory requirements for the sectors that contribute most to emission outputs. Leaders must set subsequent policies in place with appropriate administrative support to ensure that policies can be enacted on time.