The Scottish Independence Referendum: A Lesson in How Not to Listen to the People?

Abstract

The issue of Scottish independence has been and remains of much discussion in United Kingdom (UK) politics, and in this matter no voice has been more committed than that of the Scottish National Party (SNP) who to this day press for a further referendum. It is entirely conceivable such a referendum would take Scotland from its current post Smith Commission “devo max” status and present it with all the opportunities and burdens of a fully sovereign nation. The most recent referendum was hotly contested, and this thesis seeks to demonstrate the largest swing of opinion on a referendum issue ever recorded in British political history. The work examines events before, during, this period to ascertain underlying factors and developments within this period. The thesis builds a framework structured around public polling data that offers a narrative highlighting five significant events: the announcement of the ballot itself, two public debates between each side of the policy argument, the issue of “the Vow,” and the ballot process including the outcome. The majority opinion within Scotland remained content to stay within the UK and retain the benefits of what David Rezvani termed “Partially Independent Territory Status.” The partially independent territory status offered more accurately represented the view of the “Median Voter” (Hotelling et al) indicating a preference for slightly increased levels of autonomy versus outright independence. This thesis demonstrates poor understanding of the public on the part of each side of the debate, each blind to what might be termed a ‘Silent Decisive Majority.’ Champions of future efforts might consider these historical lessons to better gauge the will and preference of the public at large before engaging in sweeping initiatives of sovereign consequence.