The Illusion of Moral Decline

Abstract

A majority of Americans say that “addressing moral breakdown” should be a “top priority” of the government. Do people really think that morality has declined, and could they be right? Seven empirical studies and two meta-analyses suggest that a) indeed, people do believe that morality has declined and b) this perception is likely an illusion. A meta-analysis of surveys spanning 90 years, 44 countries, and 1.1 million participants reveals that large majorities perceive moral decline. Further studies show that people believe that decline has been happening at least since they were born, and that people today are less moral than people were even a few years ago. People attribute decline both to individuals getting worse over time and to worse cohorts replacing better ones. Another meta-analysis of 127 surveys spanning 4.4 million participants suggests this is an illusion, as indicators of morality have not changed over time. Finally, I propose a computational model that can explain why people think morality has declined even when it hasn’t: people encounter mainly negative information about the people they don’t know, but the negativity of that information fades over time, leading people to mistakenly believe that things have gotten worse. Three further studies provide support for this mechanism.