PROPHETS OF PLENTY: HOW SCIENTISTS IGNORED NATURAL COMPLEXITY AND OVERPROMISED SUSTAINABLE FISHERIES, 1863-PRESENT

Abstract

In this dissertation I argue that fisheries science overpromised and under-delivered large sustainable catches. Fisheries scientists’ presumption of plenitude encouraged them to ignore important aspects of fish ecology like population fluctuations and species interactions. Along with challenges acquiring reliable population data, these ecological factors generated inherent uncertainty and posed barriers to large sustainable catches. By ignoring these ecological factors and assuming abundance when confronted with uncertainty, scientists systematically set catches high enough to incur substantial risk of fishery and ecosystem collapse. This presumption of plenitude emerged from the field’s purpose as a technoscientific method of maximizing sustained catch for benefit of the fishing industry and fish consumers, and despite advances in science and policy, has remained an anchoring concept for fisheries science in ways that put marine ecosystems at continued risk of collapse.